Physician resources planning Base Case - Workforce Forecast 2016 to 2025
The Physician Resource Planning Base Case – Workforce Forecast has been updated for the 2016 to 2025 period. This forecast is based upon the roster of physicians who provided care in Nova Scotia between April 1, 2014 and March 31, 2015. The individuals were identified by cross referencing a variety of databases both within the Department Of Health and Wellness and from organizations such as the College of Physicians and Surgeons. A full-time equivalent was calculated using CIHI methodology to enable comparison across Canada. The Nova Scotia Health Authority and the IWK Health Centre validated the information. These Consultants (Social Sector Metrics) used the same methodology as in previous forecasts to update the projections for the next 10 year period, 2016 – 2025.
Several discipline specific forecasts were significantly different from the previous 10 year period. Notably, for disciplines where there has been significant recruitment of younger physicians in their 30s to replace retiring physicians in their 60s, the 10 year forecast need decreased. This reflects the careers for the new younger physicians who will likely not retire for 20+ years.
The 10 Year Forecast addresses only clinical needs. It does not forecast the academic FTE pending ongoing Academic Funding Plan negotiations. In establishing the current clinical FTE roster, it was assumed that 20% of the FTE of members of Academic Funding Plans was for academic teaching, research and leadership activities.
This forecast is not a prescription or a commitment to specific numbers. Rather it is another tool in the Physician Resource Planning process which will, along with other factors, inform planning including the number and mix of postgraduate training positions at Dalhousie, new physician appointments and other decisions
Description of Future Supply Variables.
Full-time equivalency [FTE] is calculated using the Canadian Institute for Health Information [CI HI] methodology with modification to include alternate funding/block funded payments.
NIPM and RFA.
NIPM – Net Interprovincial Migration is the net number of physicians leaving and returning to the province annually.
RFA – Return from Abroad is the net number of physicians leaving and returning to the province from abroad.
Gender Adjustment is the relative difference between males and females in absolute FTE value between the ages of 25 and 74.
Work Hours Adjustment.
Work Hours Adjustment is the expected change in average hours worked per week and per year over the forecast 10 years.
Separations represent the change in FTE value as one ages, ultimately at zero FTE as one enters full retirement.
Benchmarks are comparable external benchmarks for specialties where benchmarks could be identified by the consultants.
Academic Physician Profile.
Portion of FTE forecast for teaching, research and leadership work in an academic environment.
Any area of additional practice beyond usual family practice work. Not applicable in current forecasts.
Collaborative Primary Care.
Impact of implementation collaborative primary care teams on the family physician replacement for the 10 year forecast.
Health System Planning.
Impact of known future Health System Planning changes on 10 year forecast.
Impact of any approved maintenance of minimal call group numbers beyond usual service needs.
Changes in future need due to population change including age and gender as well as disease incidence and prevalence.