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June 08, 2018LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - MAY 2018 Nova Scotia's seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 3,600 to 454,100 in May 2018. This decrease follows an increase of 2,700 in April. For the last 12 months, there has been 6 months of both losses and gains, with the gains larger than the declines.
Compared to April, Nova Scotia’s labour force decreased by 1,000 to 489,500 in April. The combination of a falling labour supply along with a faster decrease in labour demand pushed the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate up by 0.5 percentage points to 7.2 per cent in May. Nova Scotia’s unemployment rate remains below long run averages, reaching their lowest levels since 2008.
In May, the decrease in employment was distributed across both full-time employment (-1,900) and part-time employment (- 1,800). Although full time employment declined last month, it remains near record levels. Changes in part-time and full-time employment can include the net impacts of changing hours of work within the same position.
Year-to Date (January-May 2018 vs. January-May 2017)
Comparing the first five months of 2018 to the same period in 2017, there was an increase of 6,000 (1.3 per cent) in the average employment level. Full time employment was up 10,300 (2.8 per cent) while there were 4,300 fewer part-time jobs (-5.1 per cent).
The labour force was up 2,800 (0.6 per cent) compared to the first five months of 2017. With labour demand increasing at a faster pace, the net result was a drop in the average unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage point to 7.5 per cent. The labour force participation rate decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8 per cent. The employment rate increased to 57.1 per cent.
Age Cohorts
Comparing the first five months of 2018 to the same period in 2017, the youth population (aged 15-24) saw a decrease in population (-700) and a drop-in employment (500) while the labour force increased by 500. With labour supply increasing and labour demand falling, the unemployment rate for 15-24 year of age increased from 15.5 per cent in the first five months of 2017 to 16.9 per cent in the first five months of 2018. For May, the youth unemployment rate was 15.2 per cent.
Within the 25-54 age cohort, the population declined 900 over the first five months of the year, but saw an employment increase of 5,200 and labour supply increase of 1,900. With employment increasing faster than the labour supply, there was a 1.1 per cent decline in the unemployment rate for this cohort, dropping to 5.8 per cent for the first five months of 2018. The May unemployment rate for core aged workers was 5.6 per cent.
The cohort aged 55 and older saw a population increase of 7,300 over the first five months of last year, a labour force increase of 400 and employment gains of 1,400. With labour demand growing faster than the labour supply, there was a decrease in the unemployment rate to 6.3 per cent (compared to 7.3 per cent over the first five months of 2017). The May unemployment rate for the age group 55 and older was 6.7 per cent.
Sectors
Looking at public and private sector employees for the first five months of 2018, the employment increase in private sector employees (7,500) was the driving force offsetting decreases in public sector employees (-3,200). For the same period self-employment was up 1,700.
Among goods-producing sectors, the first five months of 2018 saw employment growth concentrated in manufacturing (+2,200) and construction (+1,200) offsetting declines in forestry, fishing, hunting, mining and oil and gas (-1,500). Services-producing employment increased by 3,000 for the first five months over the same period in 2017. The largest increases come from education services and food and accommodation sectors. The largest decline came from health care and social assistance.
Regions (3 month moving average, January-May 2018 vs. January-May 2017)
Comparing the 3-month average for the first five months of 2018 with the same period in 2017, Halifax was the only region reporting a falling unemployment rate due to employment growth outpacing labour supply. Cape Breton and the South shore regions had lower unemployment rates due to labour supply declining at a faster pace than labour demand The North Shore region had falling employment and labour supply causing upward pressure on their unemployment rates. The Annapolis Valley’s employment growth was slightly slower than the rise in labour supply resulting in a higher unemployment rate.
The Cape Breton region reported a decline in employment of 600 while there were 800 less in the labour force. The net result was a 0.1 percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate to 15.0 per cent.
For the North Shore region, employment decreased 2,400 while the labour force also declined 2,400. As this is a proportionally faster decline in employment, there was a 0.4 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 9.6 per cent.
The Annapolis Valley reported an increase in employment of 2,300 and an increase in the labour force of 2,600. The net result was an increase of 0.1 percentage points in the average unemployment rate to 8.8 per cent.
The Southern region saw a decrease of 200 in employment along with a drop of 1,600 in the labour force. With the labour force falling at a faster pace, the unemployment rate was down 2.5 percentage points to 8.1 per cent.
Halifax experienced an increase in employment of 7,100 along with an increase in the labour force of 6,400. With the labour demand growing faster than labour supply the unemployment rate dropped by 0.4 percentage point to 6.4 per cent in Halifax.
Provincial Comparisons
The Nova Scotia unemployment rate was 7.2 per cent in May 2018. In May of last year, the unemployment rate was 8.1 per cent in Nova Scotia. The Canadian unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent, down from 6.5 per cent one year ago. Compared to the same month one year ago, only Manitoba and Saskatchewan reported a higher unemployment rate. Alberta had the steepest decline (1.6 percentage points). The lowest unemployment rate among the provinces in May 2018 was in British Columbia (4.8 per cent) while the highest was in Newfoundland and Labrador at 14.5 per cent.
Comparing January-May 2018 with January-May 2017, employment increased 1.5 per cent in Canada. Employment grew in eight of the ten provinces, with the largest gains in Prince Edward Island (+2.4 per cent). Employment declined in Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.9 per cent) and Saskatchewan (-0.5 per cent).
National Comparisons: Cities
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in April was 5.7 per cent. Peterborough (2.7 per cent) had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs in April, while the highest was in St. John's (8.7 per cent).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for the Halifax CMA was 64.3 per cent, down from 64.6 last month. Trois-Rivieres and Saguenay both had the lowest employment rate (55.7 per cent), while Calgary and Regina both had the highest (67.9 per cent).
The three month average employment ending in May for the Halifax CMA was down 0.3 per cent compared to the three month period ending in April. The largest gain among CMAs was in Oshawa, ON where employment rose by 2.4 per cent.
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
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