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September 07, 2018LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - AUGUST 2018 Nova Scotia's seasonally adjusted employment increased by 1,200 to 454,600 in July 2018. This increase follows an increase of 1,000 in July. This is the first time this year there was a back-to-back increase the in seasonally adjusted employment. The employment level has remained over 450,000 since December 2017.
Compared to July, Nova Scotia’s labour force increased by 3,500 to 496,100 in August. With labour supply growing at a faster pace than labour demand, the result was a 0.4 percentage point increase in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to 8.4 per cent in August. Nova Scotia’s unemployment rate remains below long run averages.
In August, the increase in employment was due to a gain in full-time employment (6,000) more than offsetting the drop in part time employment (4,800). Full time employment at 377,100 is the highest record level in the labour survey since 1976. Changes in part-time and full-time employment can include the net impacts of changing hours of work within the same position.
Year-to Date (January-August 2018 vs. January-August 2017)
Comparing the first eight months of 2018 to the same period in 2017, there was an increase of 6,000 (1.3 per cent) in the average employment level. Full time employment was up 10,800 (3.0 per cent) while there were 4,900 fewer part-time jobs (-5.7 per cent).
The labour force was up 3,100 (0.6 per cent) compared to the first eight months of 2017. With labour demand increasing at a faster pace, the net result was a drop in the average unemployment rate of 0.6 percentage point to 7.7 per cent. The labour force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8 per cent. The employment rate increased to 57.0 per cent.
Age Cohorts
Comparing the first eight months of 2018 to the same period in 2017, the youth population (aged 15-24) saw a decrease in population (-600) and increases in employment (600) and the labour force (800). With labour supply increasing at a slightly faster pace than labour demand, the unemployment rate for 15-24 year of age increased from 16.5 per cent in the first eight months of 2017 to 16.6 per cent in the first eight months of 2018. For August, the youth unemployment rate was 16.4 per cent.
Within the 25-54 age cohort, the population declined 500 over the first eight months of the year, but saw an employment increase of 4,500 and labour supply increase of 1,600. With employment increasing faster than the labour supply, there was a 0.9 per cent decline in the unemployment rate for this cohort, dropping to 6.1 per cent for the first eight months of 2018. The August unemployment rate for these core aged workers was 6.6 per cent
The cohort aged 55 and older saw a population increase of 7,000 over the first eight months of last year, a labour force increases of 800 and employment gains of 900. With labour demand growing slightly faster than the labour supply, there was a decrease in the unemployment rate to 6.7 per cent (compared to 6.8 per cent over the first eight months of 2017). The July unemployment rate for the age group 55 and older was 8.0 per cent.
Sectors
Looking at public and private sector employees for the first eight months of 2018, the employment increase in private sector employees (6,400) was the driving force offsetting decreases in public sector employees (-3,100). For the same period self-employment was up 2,700.
Among goods-producing sectors, the first eight months of 2018 saw employment growth concentrated in manufacturing (+1,000) and construction (+1,400) offsetting declines in forestry, fishing, hunting, mining and oil and gas (-1,500). Services-producing employment increased by 4,300 for the first eight of 2018 over the same period in 2017. The largest increases come from education, accommodation/food sectors and wholesale/retail trade. The largest decline came from health care and social assistance.
Regions (3 month moving average, January-August 2018 vs. January-August 2017)
Comparing the 3-month average for the first eight months of 2018 with the same period in 2017, Halifax and the South shore region were the only regions reporting a falling unemployment rate due to employment growth outpacing labour supply. The North Shore and Cape Breton regions had equal changes in both labour demand and labour supply causing upward pressure on their unemployment rates. The Annapolis Valley reported a slightly faster decline in the labour supply along with a slight drop in unemployment pushing downward pressure on their unemployment rate.
The Cape Breton region reported a decline of 600 for both employment and the labour force. With no change in the number of unemployed workers along with a fall in the labour force, unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 14.5 per cent.
For the North Shore region, employment and the labour force both declined by 2,300. Again, with no change in the number of unemployed workers and a falling labour force, the unemployment rate increase by 0.3 percentage points to 9.5 per cent.
The Annapolis Valley reported a decline of 300 for employment along with a decline of 400 for the labour force. There was also a slight drop in the number of unemployed workers. The net result was drop in the average unemployment rate of 0.1 percentage to 7.8 per cent.
The Southern region saw an increase of 1,300 in employment along with a drop of 300 in the labour force. With the labour force falling and employment increasing, the unemployment rate was down 2.9 percentage points to 7.2 per cent.
Halifax experienced an increase in employment of 7,800 along with an increase in the labour force of 7,100. With the labour demand growing faster than labour supply the unemployment rate dropped by 0.5 percentage point to 6.4 per cent in Halifax.
Provincial Comparisons
The Nova Scotia unemployment rate was 8.4 per cent in August 2018, down from 8.9 per cent a year ago. The Canadian unemployment rate was 6.0 per cent, down from 6.2 per cent one year ago. Compared to the same month one year ago, six provinces noted higher unemployment rates. Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Quebec and Alberta all posted declines compared to August 2017. The lowest unemployment rate among the provinces in August 2018 was in British Columbia (5.3 per cent) while the highest was in Newfoundland and Labrador at 14.4 per cent.
Comparing January-August 2018 with January-August 2017, employment increased 1.4 per cent in Canada. Employment grew in eight of the ten provinces, with the largest gains in Prince Edward Island (+2.7 per cent). Employment declined in Saskatchewan (-0.2 per cent), while Newfoundland and Labrador showed no change.
National Comparisons: Cities
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in August was 6.8 per cent. Quebec City (3.7 per cent) had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs, while the highest was in St. John's (9.5 per cent).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for the Halifax CMA was 63.9 per cent, even with last month. Saguenay had the lowest employment rate (55.2 per cent), while Ednonton had the highest (67.9 per cent).
The three month average employment ending in August for the Halifax CMA was up 0.1 per cent compared to the three month period ending in July. The largest gain among CMAs was in Barrie, Ontario, where employment rose by 2.5 per cent.
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
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