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April 05, 2019LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - MARCH 2019 Nova Scotia's seasonally adjusted employment level was unchanged in March, compared to February, at a level of 466,500. Employment is 11,800 higher than it was last March.
Nova Scotia has had positive or stable employment in each of the last 9 months – the longest such period since the start of the monthly Labour Force Survey in 1976.
Compared to February, Nova Scotia’s labour force decreased by 1,300 to 497,200 in March. With employment staying level, the lower labour force resulted in unemployment declining by 1,400. The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 6.2 per cent in March. This is the lowest unemployment rate for Nova Scotia in the current format of the labour force survey (dating back to 1976).
In March, full-time employment declined 3,800 while part-time employment offset those declines (approximately +3,900). Note: Changes in part-time and full-time employment can include the net impacts of changing hours of work within the same position.
Compared with March 2018, the labour force has increased by 6,100 while employment is up 11,800. The year-over-year increase in employment includes a rise of 4,000 in full time employment and an increase of 7,900 in part time employment. The unemployment rate was 1.2 percentage points lower in March 2019 than it was in March 2018.
Comparing the first quarter of 2019 with the same quarter of 2018, the labour force grew by 5,100 (+1.0%) while employment was up by 11,400 (+2.5%). This pushed the quarterly unemployment rate down from 7.8 per cent in Q1 2018 to 6.5 per cent in Q1 2019.
Age Cohorts
In March 2019, the monthly unemployment rate for the 15-24 age cohort declined 1.5 percentage points to 12.7 per cent. The unemployment rate for the 25-54 year old age cohort rose 0.1 percentage points to 5.1 per cent, and for those aged 55 years and older, the unemployment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 5.0 per cent.
Year-to-Date
Comparing the first three months of 2019 to the same period in 2018, the youth cohort (aged 15-24) saw a decrease in population (-300) along with increases of 4,100 in labour force and 6,400 in employment. With the number of unemployed declining as a proportion of the labour force, the unemployment rate for 15-24-year olds decreased 4.1 percentage points to 13.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2019.
Within the 25-54 age cohort, the population in January-March 2019 was 1,300 higher than it was in the same period of 2018. Employment among core aged workers rose by 700 and labour force dropped by 1,900. Unemployment in this age cohort dropped by 8002,600, and as a result, the unemployment rate declined by 0.8 percentage points over last year to 5.3 per cent in Q1 2019.
In year to date terms, older workers (55+) reported a population increase of 6,200 in Q1 2019. The labour force for older workers was up 3,000 and employment increased by 4,300. Employment gains outpaced the rise in labour supply, reducing unemployment by 1,300 and decreasing the year to date unemployment rate from 6.6 per cent in Jan-March 2018 to 5.2 per cent in Jan-March 2019.
Sectors – Year to Date
Looking at the results by class of worker for the first three months of 2019, employment increases for the private sector (+6,600) and for the public sector (+5,800) offset self-employment declines (-1,000). In Nova Scotia, there was an average of 288,800 private sector employees, 117,500 public sector employees, and 59,800 self-employed for the first three months of 2019.
Among goods-producing sectors, the first three months of 2019 saw employment growth concentrated in forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying and oil and gas (+1,600) and manufacturing (+1,300) offsetting employment losses in utilities and construction. Services-producing employment increased by 8,200 compared to the first three months of 2018. The largest increases come from wholesale/retail trade, accommodation/food sectors, health care, and information, culture and recreation. The largest declines came from finance/insurance, public administration, and business, building, and other support services.
Regions – Year-to-Date (3-month moving average)
Comparing the first three months 2019 against the same period in 2018, unemployment rates fell in all economic regions except Cape Breton. The Southern and Halifax regions both saw employment gains, while all regions except Cape Breton had declines in total unemployment.
The Cape Breton region showed declines in employment (-600) with labour force remaining constant, and an increase in unemployment (700). This put upward pressure on the unemployment rate, which rose from 15.1 per cent in January-March 2018 to 16.3 per cent in January-March 2019.
For the North Shore region, the labour force declined by 3,400 and employment declined by 1,300. With labour force falling and unemployment dropping by 2,100, this caused a 2.5 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate from 9.4 per cent to 6.9 per cent.
The Annapolis Valley reported a decline of 200 for employment along with a decline of 1,200 for the labour force. Unemployment dropped by 1,000, and the net result was drop in the average unemployment rate of 1.4 percentage points to 7.5 per cent.
The Southern region saw an increase of 5,400 in employment along with an increase of 5,100 in the labour force. With unemployment declining by 400 over this period, the unemployment rate was down 1.5 percentage points to 7.2 per cent so far in 2019.
Halifax experienced an increase in employment of 7,400 along with an increase in the labour force of 3,500. With unemployment declining by 4,000, there was a drop in the unemployment rate of about 1.7 percentage points to 4.8 per cent in Halifax.
Provincial Comparisons
The Nova Scotia unemployment rate was 6.2 per cent in March 2019, down from 7.4 per cent a year ago. The Canadian unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent, level with one year ago. Canada's unemployment rate remains near record lows since the start of the Labour Force Survey.
Compared to the same month one year ago, all provinces except Ontario and Alberta reported lower unemployment rates. The lowest unemployment rate among the provinces this month was in Saskatchewan (4.9 per cent) while the highest was in Newfoundland and Labrador at 11.5 per cent.
Employment across the country was up in all provinces in year to date terms. The largest gains in percentage terms was seen in Newfoundland and Labrador (3.3%) and in British Columbia (2.8%). Nationally, employment was up 1.8 per cent.
National Comparisons: Cities (Monthly)
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in March 2019 was 4.9 per cent (3 month moving average). Guelph, Ontario (2.2 per cent) had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs, while the highest was in St. John’s (7.8 per cent).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for the Halifax CMA was 64.2 per cent, level compared to last month. Saguenay had the lowest employment rate (53.7 per cent), while Guelph had the highest (68.7 per cent).
Halifax’s employment (3 month moving average) for March 2019 was level compared to the February 2019 result. The largest gain among CMAs was in Trois Rivieres, Quebec, where employment rose by 1.5 per cent.
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
With the January 2019 Labour Force Survey release, Statistics Canada has changed the processing systems that is used to impute data of incomplete records of the survey. Statistics Canada notes that for most LFS estimates the difference from the new system will be small, but some areas could be impacted such as part-time employment and employment by firm size. The transition is being monitored and historical revisions of series maybe made in the future. For more details, see Transition of Labour Force Survey Data Processing to the Social Survey Processing Environment (SSPE)
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