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June 19, 2019ANALYSIS OF NOVA SCOTIA'S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR MAY 2019 TRENDS - May 2019
In Nova Scotia May 2019, year over year growth for the All-Items Consumer Price Index was 1.9 per cent, below the national average of 2.4 per cent. Monthly consumer prices were up 0.3 per cent in Nova Scotia and up 0.4 per cent nationally.
Within Atlantic Canada, New Brunswick had the highest year over year consumer price inflation (+2.1 per cent), followed by Nova Scotia (+1.9 per cent). Inflation was lower in Newfoundland and Labrador (+1.6 per cent) and Prince Edward island (+1.2 per cent).
In May 2019 CPI increased nationally amid broad-based gains including higher prices for food and durable goods while gasoline prices declined. Year over year inflation was higher than last month for seven provinces with the highest inflation rate for May 2019 in Manitoba (+2.8 per cent).
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year over year growth in CPI) excluding food and energy rose 2.3 per cent in May, below the national rate of 2.4 per cent. Price level gains for this index were largest in Manitoba (+2.9 per cent), and lowest in Prince Edward Island (+1.4 per cent). On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's index excluding food and energy was up 0.3 per cent.
The main contributors to the monthly (May 2019 vs. April 2019) NS CPI movement:
- Traveller accommodation (+14.4 per cent)
- Passenger vehicle insurance premiums (+4.0 per cent)
- Gasoline (-1.5 per cent)
- Rent (-0.8 per cent)
The main contributors to the annual (May 2019 vs. May 2018) NS CPI movement:
- Purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles (+4.8 per cent)
- Passenger vehicle insurance premium (+12.7 per cent)
- Gasoline (-3.5 per cent)
- Traveller accommodation (-12.2 per cent)
The CPI for food in Nova Scotia increased 2.5 per cent year-over-year with a 0.7 per cent increase month-to-month. CPI growth in food (year over year) was up in all provinces this month. Ontario showed the highest year over year food price growth (+4.1 per cent). Nationally, annual food prices increased 3.5 per cent with higher meat prices (+2.9%) and inclement weather in source regions driving higher prices in fresh vegetables (+16.7%).
The Nova Scotia energy price index decreased by 0.1 per cent compared to a year ago. Monthly energy prices (May 2019 vs. April 2019) were up 0.1 per cent in Nova Scotia and increased 0.6 per cent nationally. Year-over-year energy price indexes were up the most in British Columbia (+4.3 per cent) and the Western Provinces. Ontario (-2.0 per cent) and Quebec (-2.3 per cent) had the largest declines.
Year over year, the consumer price index for shelter increased by 2.1 per cent in Nova Scotia and 2.7 per cent in Canada.
Major Components for April 2019
The following table shows the price increases specific to Nova Scotia for the major components of the CPI this month:
Long Run Trends
The All-Items CPI year over year inflation rate for Nova Scotia was below Canada's in May 2019. Nova Scotia's annual inflation has remained below the Canadian average since mid-2014, with the exception of only a few months. While month to month movements in the indices can be different, over time they generally follow the same overall trend.
Annual inflation for the CPI excluding food and energy was lower for Nova Scotia (at 2.3 per cent) compared to Canada (2.4 per cent) in May.
Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation
Compared with May 2018, CPI-Common increased 1.8 per cent, CPI-Median rose 2.1 per cent and CPI-Trim was up 2.3 per cent in Canada. All-items CPI excluding eight of the most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada and excluding the effect of changes in indirect taxes (formerly referred to as CPIX) rose to 2.1 per cent year over year for this month, compared to a 1.5 per cent rate reported last month.
Appendix Tables and Charts
A NOTE ON CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
On February 27, 2019, with the release of the January 2019 CPI, the basket of goods and services used in the calculation of the CPI was updated using 2017 weights. The base year, in which the CPI is set to equal 100, remains 2002.
The 2017 basket classification system was updated to add new, relevant goods and services, while removing some that are obsolete. Some minor changes will be made to published index titles in order to clarify the definition of some series.
The alcoholic beverages and tobacco products major component has been updated to include recreational cannabis. Additionally, medicinal cannabis has been added under medicinal and pharmaceutical products.
There is also a change to the calculation of the rent index. Month over month changes to the rent index will not be impacted as the previous month has been linked to the current month. However, year over year change calculations should be interpreted with caution, particularly in the year following this implemented change.
Source: Statistics Canada data portal: Tables 18-10-0004-01 and 18-10-0256-01
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