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January 22, 2020ANALYSIS OF NOVA SCOTIA'S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR DECEMBER 2019 TRENDS - December 2019
In Nova Scotia November 2019, year over year growth for the All-Items Consumer Price Index was 2.2 per cent, the same as the national average of 2.2 per cent. Monthly consumer prices were down 0.4 per cent in Nova Scotia and unchanged nationally.
Within Atlantic Canada, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island had the highest inflation in the month. Inflation was lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador (+2.0 per cent).
The national CPI increase of 2.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis in December was the same as the previous month. Energy prices rose 5.5 per cent year-over-year following an increase in November with gasoline pries 7.4 per cent higher than December 2018. Year-over-year growth in fresh vegetable prices (+1.5%) continued to slow in December with lettuce prices down 5.0 per cent compared with December 2018. In December 2018, lettuce prices increased were up for other-types of lettuce after an E.coli outbreak required US romaine lettuce stocks to be disposed.
Year over year inflation was highest in Quebec (+2.7%) while Saskatchewan (+1.6%) was only province with a rate below 2 per cent.
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year over year growth in CPI) excluding food and energy rose 1.6 per cent in December lower than the national rate of 1.8 per cent. Price level gains for this index were largest in Quebec (+2.6 per cent), and lowest in Saskatchewan r (+1.0 per cent). On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's index excluding food and energy was down 0.3 per cent.
The main contributors to the monthly (December 2019 vs. November 2019) NS CPI movement:
- Inter-city transportation (+22.2 per cent)
- Rent (+0.9 per cent)
- Purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles (-1.1 per cent)
- Traveller accommodation (-11.4 per cent)
The main contributors to the annual (December 2019 vs. December 2018) NS CPI movement
- Gasoline (+12.3 per cent)
- Passenger vehicle insurance premiums (+10.3 per cent)
- Telephone services (-7.8 per cent)
- Men's clothing (-5.7 per cent)
The CPI for food in Nova Scotia increased 3.0 per cent year-over-year with a 0.6 per cent decrease month-to-month. CPI growth in food (year over year) was up in all provinces this month. British Columbia showed the highest year over year food price growth (+3.8 per cent). Nationally, annual food prices increased 3.0 per cent.
The Nova Scotia energy price index increased by 6.3 per cent compared to a year ago. Monthly energy prices (December 2019 vs. November 2019) were down 0.2 per cent in Nova Scotia and were up 0.1 per cent nationally. Year-over-year energy price indexes increased in every province with the largest increase in Ontario (+7.7 per cent).
Year over year, the consumer price index for shelter increased by 3.1 per cent in Nova Scotia and 2.8 per cent in Canada. Shelter costs were up in every province.
Major Components for December 2019
The following table shows the price increases specific to Nova Scotia for the major components of the CPI this month:
Long Run Trends
The All-Items CPI year over year inflation rate for Nova Scotia was the same as Canada's in December 2019. Nova Scotia's annual inflation has mostly been below the Canadian average since mid-2014, with the exception of only a few months. While month to month movements in the indices can be different, over time they generally follow the same overall trend.
Annual inflation for the CPI excluding food and energy in Nova Scotia (1.6 per cent) was lower than the national rate (1.8 per cent) in December. 
Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation
Compared with December 2018, CPI-Common increased 2.0 per cent, CPI-Median rose 2.2 per cent and CPI-Trim was up 2.1 per cent in Canada. All-items CPI excluding eight of the most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada, and excluding the effect of changes in indirect taxes (formerly referred to as CPIX), rose 1.7 per cent year over year.
Appendix Tables and Charts
A NOTE ON CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
On February 27, 2019, with the release of the January 2019 CPI, the basket of goods and services used in the calculation of the CPI was updated using 2017 weights. The base year, in which the CPI is set to equal 100, remains 2002.
The 2017 basket classification system was updated to add new, relevant goods and services, while removing some that are obsolete. Some minor changes will be made to published index titles in order to clarify the definition of some series.
The alcoholic beverages and tobacco products major component has been updated to include recreational cannabis. Additionally, medicinal cannabis has been added under medicinal and pharmaceutical products.
There is also a change to the calculation of the rent index. Month over month changes to the rent index will not be impacted as the previous month has been linked to the current month. However, year over year change calculations should be interpreted with caution, particularly in the year following this implemented change.
Source: Statistics Canada data portal: Tables 18-10-0004-01 and 18-10-0256-01
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