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April 08, 2020BUILDING PERMITS, FEBRUARY 2020 AND FLASH ESTIMATES FOR MARCH 2020 BUILDING PERMITS FLASH ESTIMATES FOR MARCH 2020
Statistics Canada released March 2020 preliminary flash estimates of building permits for select regions due to rapidly evolving situation around COVID-19. The following data is not seasonally adjusted and compared with the same large municipalities on a year over year basis for the month of March. The data is more limited than February estimates being based on open-source data for 23 large municipalities and submission up to April 2, 2020, the sources comprise around 29% of total building permit value. Note, data was insufficient for Newfound and Labrador to be reported.
In March 2020, the national value of total (residential and non-residential) building permits was down 23.2 per cent to $1.4 billion compared to March 2019. The value of Nova Scotia building permits jumped up 135.9 per cent to $101.2 million compared to March 2019. Total building permit values declined in all provinces except Nova Scotia (+135.9 per cent), Saskatchewan (+80.9 per cent), and Alberta (+11.7 per cent). The largest decline was in Prince Edward Island (-75.9 per cent) followed by Ontario (-50.5 per cent), Quebec (-39.1 per cent), British Columbia (-26.8 per cent), Manitoba (-14.2 per cent), and New Brunswick (-5.1 per cent).
Municipalities in central Canada showed the largest declines, as both Ontario and Quebec declared emergencies in mid-March to combat the threat posed by the COVID-19. Outside of central Canada, investment intentions in the Maritime provinces showed resilience with building permits in Halifax rising 153.1 per cent, as both the residential (+$31 million) and non-residential (+$28 million) sectors increased compared with March 2019. The number of permits in Charlottetown increased by 31.6 per cent (+12 permits) from a year ago.
In Western Canada the value of building permits declined 3.2 per cent to $861 million. British Columbia reported many of the earliest Canadian cases of COVID-19, construction intentions likely slowed earlier than in the rest of Western Canada. A change in development fee costs in January for Vancouver may also have pulled some permits forward as builders avoided cost increases by submitting permit applications earlier than usual.
In March 2020, the national value of residential building permits was down 34.6 per cent compared to March 2019. The value of Nova Scotia residential building permits was jumped up 115.1 per cent compared to March 2019. Residential building permit values declined in all provinces except Nova Scotia (+115.1 per cent), Manitoba (+59.5 per cent), and New Brunswick (+22.2 per cent). The largest decline was in Prince Edward Island (-71.3 per cent) followed by Ontario (-54.6 per cent), British Columbia (-41.9 per cent), Quebec (-27.8 per cent), Alberta (-12.1 per cent) and Saskatchewan (-12.6 per cent).
In March 2020, the national value of non-residential building permits was down 7.4 per cent compared to March 2019. The value of Nova Scotia non-residential building permits was jumped up 170.9 per cent compared to March 2019. Non-residential building permit values declined in all provinces except Saskatchewan (+182.8 per cent), Nova Scotia (+170.9 per cent), and Alberta (+41.6 per cent). The largest decline was in Prince Edward Island (-100.0 per cent) followed by New Brunswick (-80.3 per cent), Manitoba (-66.7 per cent), Quebec (-60.3 per cent), Ontario (-44.3 per cent) and British Columbia (-8.4 per cent).
BUILDING PERMITS, FEBRUARY 2020
The monthly value of building permits (seasonally adjusted) issued in Nova Scotia decreased 10.8 per cent in February, following a (revised) increase of 14.6 per cent in January. Nova Scotia's residential permits declined 14.2 per cent while non-residential building permits declined 2.7 per cent. Monthly results for building permits are highly volatile.
The six-month moving average of residential permits trended modestly upwards through 2017 and then declined in early 2018. Afterwards, residential permits resumed an upward trend before flattening out over the 2019. The six-month moving average for non-residential permit values remained relatively flat from mid-2017 to late 2018. Since early 2019, non-residential permits have trended upward but have peaked at the end of the year.
The trend in Nova Scotia building permit values largely reflects the trends in the Halifax market. The value of Halifax building permits decreased -19.1 per cent in February, reflecting a 22.0 per cent decline in residential permit values and a 11.9 per cent decline in non-residential permit values.
The six-month moving average for residential permits in Halifax has been rising since mid-2016 except for a decline in the fall of 2017 and early 2018. Since then, Halifax residential permits trended upward before flattening out over the 2019. Non-residential permits in Halifax trended down starting in June 2017, though they have trended upward since the spring of 2019.
Outside the Halifax market, building permit values increased 6.8 per cent in February 2020, reflecting a rise in residential permits (+3.2 per cent) and a rise in non-residential permits (+14.1 per cent). Non-residential permits trended upward outside of Halifax from mid-2017 to mid-2018, remained flat for a period and have started to decline in recent months. Residential permits were higher in 2019 but are returning to levels of previous years.
In January-February 2020, the value of Nova Scotia building permits was down 19.7 per cent compared to January-February 2019. Residential permits are 26.8 per cent lower and non-residential permits are up 2.3 per cent for year-to-date. The increase in non-residential building permits reflect a rise in commercial (+4.3%) and declines in industrial (-6.3%) and institutional (-2.2%)
Halifax building permits were down 25.4 per cent in January-February 2020 as residential permits fell 38.3 per cent. Building permits outside of Halifax were down 6.7 per cent.
Building permits in Nova Scotia's five economic regions totaled $158.0 million (unadjusted) in January-February 2020. The largest contributor was the Halifax region, with a combined residential and non-residential permit value of $117.3 million. In January-February 2020, the total value of residential and non-residential permits was up in Cape Breton, North Shore and Halifax region. Total permits declined in Annapolis Valley and Southern regions compared to January-February.
In January-February 2020, the number of residential dwelling-units created (seasonality adjusted) in Nova Scotia was down by 394 units compared to the January-February 2019. The number of single units was up for both Halifax (+39) and Nova Scotia outside of Halifax (+29). The number of multiple units created was down for both Halifax (-379) and Nova Scotia outside of Halifax (-83).
Nationally, residential building permit values (seasonally adjusted) were on an upward trend in 2016 but have levelled off since early 2017. National residential building permits were down 7.3 per cent in February. Non-residential building permit values rose through 2017 and peaked toward the end of the year, remaining relatively flat through 2018. Since the end of 2018, non-residential permits have risen modestly. National non-residential permit values were down 7.3 per cent in February.
Comparing January-February 2020 with January-February 2019, national residential building permit (seasonality adjusted) values were up 9.2 per cent, with increases in six provinces. British Columbia (+24.7 per cent) showed the largest gain in residential permits in percentage terms, followed by Alberta (+19.3 per cent). Nova Scotia (-26.8 per cent) showed the largest decline, followed by Manitoba (-7.0 per cent).
National non-residential permits (seasonality adjusted) are up 7.8 per cent in January-February 2020 compared with January-February 2019. Newfoundland and Labrador had the largest gains in non-residential building permits (+48.2 per cent) followed by Ontario (+21.3 per cent). Non-residential permits declined in New Brunswick (-59.4 per cent) and Quebec (-7.3 per cent).
In January-February 2020, the national value of total (residential and non-residential) building permits was up 8.7 per cent compared to January-February 2019. Total building permit values were up in seven provinces in January-February 2020, led by Newfoundland and Labrador (+27.0 per cent) and British Columbia (+19.7 per cent). New Brunswick reported the largest decline over this period (-35.3 per cent), followed by Nova Scotia (-19.7 per cent).
Source: Statistics Canada Table 34-10-0066-01
Note: In building permits flash estimates for March 2020, data for Newfoundland and Labrador is not released.
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