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April 09, 2020LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - MARCH 2020 Nova Scotia's seasonally adjusted employment level was down 24,800 (-5.3%) in March to 446,200 as the first effects of COVID-19 started to impact the labour market. Employment was 20,600 (-4.4%) lower than was March 2019.
Supplementary information shows that in addition to employment declines, there was a sharp increase in the number of Nova Scotians who were employed but had zero hours because of business conditions (+34,500) as well as those who worked but had less than 50 per cent of their usual hours (+23,300) and those who wanted to work, but did not look for work (+7,000). Combining those who lost employment or faced reduced hours, this amounts to about 18 per cent of those who worked in Nova Scotia in February.
Nova Scotia’s labour force decreased by 20,700 (-4.1%) to 498,500 for March. The number of unemployed was up 4,300 and the population not in labour force rose 21,400 compared to last month. The unemployment rate increased 1.2 percentage points to 9.0 per cent in March.
In March, full-time employment decreased by 7,700 (-2.0%) while part-time employment was down 17,100 (-18.9%). Note: Changes in part-time and full-time employment can include the net impacts of changing hours of work within the same position.
With the population mostly steady (+0.1%) in March 2020, the participation rate declined 2.6 percentage points to 60.2 per cent with the large exit from labour market. This is the lowest participation rate since March of 1998. The employment rate declined 3.1 percentage points to 54.8 per cent in March 2020, the lowest level since March 1999.
Year-to-date averages include the impacts of extraordinary employment and labour force declines in March and should not be taken as representative of changes in economic conditions.
For the first three months of 2020 compared to first three months of 2019, Nova Scotia average employment is 1.1 per cent lower while the labour force is up 0.7 per cent. The total labour force survey population estimate is up 1.3 per cent. Full-time employment was down 0.6 per cent and part-time employment decreased 3.1 per cent. The larger decrease in employment and rising labour force lifted the average unemployment rate from 6.4 per cent for Jan-Mar 2019 to 8.1 per cent for Jan-Mar 2020.
Age Cohorts
The monthly decline in participation rate of 2.6 per cent was observed across all age groups, but more for younger workers. The participation rate of younger Nova Scotians (15-24), declined 10.4 percentage points to 62.6 per cent. For core aged Nova Scotians (25-54) the participation rate declined 2.4 percentage points to 85.5 per cent, and for older workers the participation rate declined 0.2 percentage points to 33.3 per cent.
Employment rates were down 11.2 percentage points for youth, 3.2 percentage points for core-aged workers, and 0.5 percentage points for older workers in March 2020.
The unemployment rate rose 3.5 percentage points for youth to 17.2 per cent. The unemployment rate for core aged workers was up 1.0 percentage points to 7.7 per cent while the unemployment rate for older workers was up 0.8 percentage points to 7.5 per cent.
The decline in employment and labour force for youth and core-age working groups in March 2020, mostly shows up in persons not the labour force rather than unemployment.
Age Cohort: January-March 2020 vs. January-March 2019
Year-to-date averages include the impacts of extraordinary employment and labour force declines in March and should not be taken as representative of changes in economic conditions.
Comparing Jan-Mar 2020 with Jan-Mar 2019, the population in the youth cohort (aged 15-24) increased by 700 change along with an increase in the labour force (+800) while employment (-300) declined. While the number of unemployed (+1,100) increased among 15-24-year olds, the unemployment rate rose 1.5 percentage points to 14.4 per cent (compared to January-March 2019).
Within the 25-54 age cohort, population growth (+2,400) was less than the increase in labour force (+2,800, +0.9 per cent) and employment declined (-2,500, -0.9 per cent). The number of unemployed rose 5,300 and the unemployment rate was up 1.7 percentage points to 7.0 per cent on average over the first three months of last year.
For Jan-Mar 2020 compared to Jan-Mar 2019, older workers (55+) reported increases in population (+7,200), but lower labour force (-300, -0.3 per cent) and employment (-2,100, -1.9 per cent). The unemployment rate for older workers increased from 5.3 per cent to 6.9 per cent for Jan-Mar period.
Males and Females
For March 2020, the monthly participation rate declined by 2.3 percentage points among Males to 63.7 per cent and by 2.8 percentage points among Females to 56.9 per cent.
The employment Rate declined by 2.7 percentage points for Males in March and by 3.5 percentage points for Females.
The monthly unemployment rate was up by 0.9 percentage points among Males to 9.7 per cent and up by 1.5 percentage points to 8.2 per cent for Females.
Males and Females: January-March 2020 vs. January-March 2019
Year-to-date averages include the impacts of extraordinary employment and labour force declines in March and should not be taken as representative of changes in economic conditions.
For Jan-Mar 2020 compared to Jan-Feb 2019, female labour force (+1,200, +0.5 per cent) increased while employment (-2,900, -1.3 per cent) declined. The unemployment rate among females increased 1.6 percentage points to 7.0 per cent for Jan-Mar 2020.
For Jan-Mar 2020 compared to Jan-Mar 2019, the male population has increased by 5,300. The male labour force has increased by 2,100 (+0.8 per cent) while employment among males decreased by 2,000 (-0.9 per cent). The decrease in employment and rising labour force resulted in the unemployment rate among males rising by 1.6 percentage points to 9.0 per cent for Jan-Mar 2020.
Sectors
Monthly employment declines in March were entirely in the private sector (-27,200) with public sector employment unchanged and self-employment rising 2,200.
Monthly employment in March declined only 1,700 (-1.9%) in the goods-producing sector with declines in agriculture (-500), construction (-500) and manufacturing (-700).
Service sector employment decreased 23,200 (-6.1%). The largest declines for March 2020 were in Wholesale and Retail (-8,200, -10.4%) and accommodation and food services (-8,900, -23.2%) and these industries account for almost 70 per cent of the overall job decline. Job declines in business, building, and other support services (-2000, -10.5%), education service (-2,000, -5.6%), and information and culture and recreation (-2,100, -11.0%) were also substantial.
Sectors – January-March 2020 vs. January-March 2019
Year-to-date averages include the impacts of extraordinary employment and labour force declines in March and should not be taken as representative of changes in economic conditions.
Looking at the results by class of worker for Jan-Mar 2020 compared to Jan-Mar 2019, employment increases for the private sector (+3,800) have been offset with declines in public sector (-7,400) and self-employment (-1,300).
Among goods-producing sectors, compared to Jan-Mar 2019, employment is higher in goods-sector (+1,500) and lower in the services-producing sector (-6,500). Average employment levels for Jan-Mar 2020 are down the most for wholesale and retail trade, educational services, accommodation and food services, and other services.
Regions – March 2020 vs. March 2019 (unadjusted 3 month moving average)
Compared to March 2019, the regional 3 month moving average data shows declines in employment in North Shore (-100), Annapolis Valley (-3,500), and Southern (-3,600). Employment average in Cape Breton (+1,600) and Halifax (+1,700) are higher. The not in labour force + unemployed estimates are higher in North Shore (+600), Annapolis Valley (+4,100), Southern (+4,100), and Halifax (+7,400) for 3 month period ending March 2020 compared to 3 month period ending March 2019.
Regions – January-March 2020 vs. January-March 2019 (unadjusted 3 month moving average)
Year-to-date averages include the impacts of extraordinary employment and labour force declines in March and should not be taken as representative of changes in economic conditions.
Comparing Jan-Mar 2020 Jan-Mar 2019, Cape Breton employment is up (+3,100) while the labour force increased by 1,600. The number of unemployed declined 1,600 and the unemployment rate fell 3.2 percentage points to 13.1 per cent.
For the North Shore region, the labour force increased by 4,200 while employment increased by 2,100. With labour force growing faster than employment, the number of unemployed rose by 2,200. This caused a 2.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate from 6.9 per cent to 9.4 per cent.
The Annapolis Valley reported a decrease of 1,200 in both employment and labour force. Unemployment was up 100 and the net result was an increase in the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points to 7.8 per cent.
The Southern region had a decrease of 4,600 in employment along with a decrease of 3,800 in the labour force. The unemployment rate increased 2.1 percentage points to 9.3 per cent for Jan-Mar 2020.
Halifax experienced an increase of 7,700 in the labour force along with an increase of 2,400 in employment. With unemployment rising by 5,300, there was an increase of 1.9 percentage points in the unemployment rate from 4.8 per cent to 6.8 per cent in Halifax.
Provincial Comparisons
All provinces report declines in employment and labour force compared to February. The largest employment declines were in Quebec (-6.0%), Ontario (-5.3%), and Nova Scotia (-5.3%). The smallest employment declines were in Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island (both -2.6%).
Compared to February 2020, Unemployment rates were up in 9 provinces with Newfoundland and Labrador declining by 0.3 percentage points. The largest unemployment rate increase was in Quebec (+3.6 percentage points). Newfoundland and Labrador at 11.7 per cent had the highest unemployment rate and Manitoba at 6.4 per cent had the lowest unemployment rate in March 2020.
National Comparisons: Cities (Monthly)
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in March 2020 was 6.8 per cent (3 month moving average). Victoria, British Columbia and Abbotsford-Mission both at 4.6 per cent had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs while the highest was in Windsor, Ontario (10.5 per cent).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for the Halifax was 62.8 per cent, down 0.9 percentage points compared to last month. Peterborough, Ontario (50.0 per cent) had the lowest employment rate, while Barrie, Ontario (70.2 per cent) had the highest.
Halifax’s employment (3 month moving average) for February 2020 was down 1.2 percent compared to the February 2020 result. All CMAs except Guelph (+0.5%) reported lower employment in March. The largest declines in CMA employment was in St. Catherines-Niagara (-4.5%) and Peterborough (-4.1%).
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
Sources:
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0287-01 Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0294-01 Labour force characteristics by census metropolitan area, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0293-01 Labour force characteristics by economic region, three-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0355-01 Employment by industry, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, and trend-cycle, last 5 months (x 1,000)
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0288-01 Employment by class of worker, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months (x 1,000)
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