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April 15, 2020CANADA REAL GDP BY INDUSTRY, MARCH 2020 (FLASH ESTIMATE) To provide Canadians with timely information about the impact on COVID-19 on the economy, Statistics Canada has produced a preliminary ("flash") estimate of real GDP for March. This indicator gives an approximate quantification of the economic disruption caused by actions to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. This is only a preliminary estimate with limited quality; it does not incorporate the full range of data normally used to estimate real GDP growth at the national level. This estimate will be revised when more complete information is available in May.
Statistics Canada estimates that Canada's real GDP declined by about 9 per cent in March (Mar20 vs Feb20, stated as a monthly change not an annualized rates). If confirmed by official data scheduled for release later in May, this would be the largest monthly decline in Canada's real GDP since the data series started in 1961.
Combined with estimates for January and February, this would result in a decline of 2.6 per cent in Canada's real GDP in Q1 (2020Q1 vs 2019Q4).
The industries identified as having the largest declines:
- Travel and tourism related industries: personal transportation, restaurants, accommodation
- Personal services
- Retail (other than food)
- Entertainment
- Sporting events
- Movie exhibition
Even among industries with work-from-home options, real output (as measured by hours worked) is also expected to decline.
Statistics Canada notes that some industries will report rising output, including:
- health care
- food distribution
- online retail
- streaming of online content
Despite significant price declines, real output of oil and gas was not substantially affected in March.
Sources: Statistics Canada. Gross domestic product by industry: Nowcast, March 2020; Table 36-10-0378-01 Gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost, by Standard Industrial Classification, 1980 (SIC), monthly (x 1,000,000); Table 36-10-0390-01 Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), monthly (x 1,000,000); Table 36-10-0434-01 Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by industry, monthly (x 1,000,000)
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