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November 30, 2020BUILDING PERMITS, OCTOBER 2020 
The monthly value of building permits (seasonally adjusted) issued in Nova Scotia increased 39.5% in October, following a (revised) decrease of 10.0% in September 2020. Nova Scotia's residential permits increased 40.7% and non-residential building permits increased 35.5%. Monthly results for building permits are highly volatile.
The six-month moving average of residential permits trended modestly upwards through 2017 and then declined in early 2018. Afterwards, residential permits resumed an upward trend before flattening out over 2019 and declining in early 2020. In recent months, the trend in residential building permits has remained relatively flat. The six-month moving average for non-residential permit values remained relatively flat from mid-2017 to late 2018. Non-residential permits trended upward through 2019 and have been down on average through 2020.
The trend in Nova Scotia building permit values largely reflects trends in the Halifax market. The value of Halifax building permits increased 83.0% in Oct 2020, reflecting a 73.0% increase in residential permit values and a 130.4% increase in non-residential permit values.
The six-month moving average for residential permits in Halifax has been rising since mid-2016 except for a decline in the fall of 2017 and early 2018. Since then, Halifax residential permits trended upward before flattening out over 2019 and declining in 2020. Non-residential permits in Halifax trended down starting in June 2017, followed by increases starting in Spring 2019. Non-residential permits have been declining in recent months.
Outside the Halifax market, building permit values decreased 0.6% in October 2020, reflecting an increase in residential permits (+6.2%) and a decrease in non-residential permits (-18.0%). Non-residential permits trended upward outside of Halifax from mid-2017 to mid-2018, remained relatively flat in 2019, and have been down on average through 2020. Residential permits were elevated for a period in 2019, trended down starting in 2020, but have been increasing in recent months.
In Jan-Oct 2020, the value of Nova Scotia building permits was down 13.7% compared to Jan-Oct 2019. Residential permits were down 13.2% and non-residential permits were down 15.1% compared to Jan-Oct 2019. The decrease in non-residential building permits reflects declines in commercial (-23.0%) and institutional (-8.4%), and an increase in industrial (+21.8%).
Halifax building permits were down 19.6% in Jan-Oct 2020 (year-to-date) with residential permits decreasing 23.1% and non-residential permits down 7.0% compared to Jan-Oct 2019. Building permits outside of Halifax were down 3.7%.
Building permits in Nova Scotia's five economic regions totalled $1.40 billion (unadjusted) in Jan-Oct 2020. The largest contributor was the Halifax region, with a combined residential and non-residential permit value of $821.2 million. In Jan-Oct 2020, the total value of residential and non-residential permits was up in Southern compared to the same period last year, while permits decreased in Cape Breton, North Shore, Annapolis Valley and Halifax.
In Jan-Oct 2020, the number of residential dwelling-units created (seasonality adjusted) in Nova Scotia was down by 674 units compared to Jan-Oct 2019. The number of single units was up for Halifax (+93) and up for Nova Scotia outside of Halifax (+89). The number of multiple units created was down for Halifax (-919) and up for Nova Scotia outside of Halifax (+61).
Nationally, the total value of building permits decreased 14.6% to $8.17 billion in October 2020.
Residential building permit values (seasonally adjusted) were on an upward trend in 2016, levelled off starting in 2017, and declined in 2020. In recent months residential permits have increased. In October 2020, residential permits declined 5.9%. Non-residential building permit values rose through 2017 and peaked toward the end of the year, remaining relatively flat through 2018. Through 2019 non-residential permits rose modestly then declined sharply in the first quarter of 2020. National non-residential permit values have increased in recent months. In October 2020, non-residential permits declined 29.5%. The monthly decrease in the national non-residential building permits was mainly reflected by decrease in Ontario.
Comparing Jan-Oct 2020 with Jan-Oct 2019, national residential building permit values (seasonality adjusted) were up 1.2%, with the largest decreases in percentage terms in Nova Scotia (-13.2%) and British Columbia (-12.2%). Residential permits increased in New Brunswick (+10.2%), Ontario (+8.6%), Quebec (+6.3%), and Saskatchewan (+5.0%).
National non-residential permits (seasonality adjusted) were down 17.2% in Jan-Oct 2020 compared with Jan-Oct 2019, with declines in eight provinces. New Brunswick (-43.3%), Saskatchewan (-39.2%), and Manitoba (-32.4%) had the largest declines in percentage terms. Non-residential permits increased in Prince Edward Island (+21.3%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (+15.0%).
In Jan-Oct 2020, the national value of total (residential and non-residential) building permits was down 6.0% compared to Jan-Oct 2019, with declines in seven provinces. Saskatchewan (-20.7%), Manitoba (-18.7%), and New Brunswick (-16.6%) had the largest declines in percentage terms. Total building permits increased in Newfoundland and Labrador (+8.0%), Prince Edward Island (+6.2%) and Ontario (+3.3%).
Comparing October 2020 with February 2020, Nova Scotia residential building permit values (seasonality adjusted) were up 62.4%. National residential building permit values (seasonality adjusted) were up 7.7%, with the largest increases in percentage terms in Nova Scotia (+62.4%), Prince Edward Island (+59.4%), and Newfoundland and Labrador (+55.0%). Residential permits decreased in Manitoba (-11.1%) and Alberta (-10.3%).
National non-residential permits (seasonality adjusted) were down 20.7% in October 2020 compared with February 2020. Newfoundland and Labrador (-55.1%) and Saskatchewan (-53.0%) had the largest declines in percentage terms. Non-residential permits increased in Prince Edward Island (+773.0%) and New Brunswick (+61.5%).
In October 2020, the national value of total (residential and non-residential) building permits was down 2.9% compared to February 2020. Saskatchewan (-21.5%), Manitoba (-18.2%), and Alberta (-11.7%) had the largest declines in percentage terms. Prince Edward Island (+173.5%) and New Brunswick (+56.7%) had the largest gains.
Source: Statistics Canada Table 34-10-0066-01
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