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January 08, 2021LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - DECEMBER 2020 LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - DECEMBER 2020
Labour force survey results reflect the period from December 6 to 12, during which time provinces had both targeted public health measures and specific region lockdown measures. Of note, new restrictions were imposed in the Halifax area in late November.
Nova Scotia’s seasonally adjusted employment level was down 9,600 (-2.0%) to 458,900 in December 2020. This was the first monthly decline since April and largely offset the gain of 10,000 jobs in November.
Nova Scotia’s employment remains 12,100 (-2.6%) lower than the pre-COVID level of February 2020. Nova Scotia has recovered 84% (63,300) of the peak employment loss reported in April (75,400). In comparison, Canada has recovered 79% (2.368 million) of April peak employment losses (-3.004 million).
Nova Scotia’s labour force increased 1,600 (+0.3%) to 502,300 in December. The labour force in December is smaller by 8,600 (-1.7%) than February 2020. The number of unemployed persons increased 11,200 compared to November and was 3,600 higher compared to February 2020.
With a large decline in employment and a rising labour force, the unemployment rate increased 2.2 percentage points from last month to 8.6% in December 2020.
The population not in the labour force decreased 1,300 compared to last month. Compared to February 2020, there are an additional 15,300 persons not in the labour force.
In December, full-time employment decreased 2,000 (-0.5%) while part-time employment decreased 7,500 (-8.8%). Employment since February 2020 increased by 900 (+0.2%) in full-time jobs but is lower by 12,900 (-14.2%) in part-time jobs. Changes in the number of hours worked within one job can result in shift employment between part-time and full-time.
The participation rate was up 0.1 percentage points to 61.2% in December and remains 1.6 percentage points below the level observed in February 2020. The employment rate decreased 1.2 percentage points to 55.9% and is down 2.0 percentage points compared to the February 2020 level.
In addition to those who have lost employment since February 2020, there are elevated numbers of persons who are counted as employed, but had zero hours (and not for routine reasons like vacation, maternity/parental leave, labour dispute) or had their hours cut by 50% or more. In December 2020 in Nova Scotia there were 29,000 persons employed but at less than 50% of their usual hours (including zero hours), up from 27,700 in November and still elevated by 9,300 compared to 19,700 in February. Combined with those who have lost employment, this amounts to about 4.5% of Nova Scotia’s February 2020 employment level; down from a high of 26.3% in May. The largest total employment/hour impact in November 2020 was in Prince Edward Island (8.9%), Manitoba (8.5%), and Alberta (8.5%). The smallest change was in Newfoundland and Labrador (1.6%) and New Brunswick (2.5%).
Statistics Canada reported in supplemental information that Nova Scotia had an increase of 3,400 (Feb-20 to Dec-20) of people who were not in the labour force but wanted to work, currently at 16,600 people. This is down from the 55,500 people in April 2020.
The labour underutilization rate (COVID-19 impact definition) is the proportion of the potential labour force (labour force + those wanting work) that is unemployed, not in labour force but wanted work or employed but have lost the majority of their usual hours.
Labour underutilization has declined from highs during March and April but remains elevated compared to February 2020 in all provinces. In February 2020, Nova Scotia's labour underutilization rate was 13.9%. This underutilization increased to 36.8% in April 2020 and subsequently fell 15.3% in November before rising to 17.1% in December. The current highest labour underutilization rate is in Newfoundland and Labrador (22.8%) and the lowest is in Quebec (14.4%).
Age Cohorts
The unemployment rate was up on a monthly basis in December for youth, core-aged and older workers in Nova Scotia. From November to December 2020, unemployment rate increased 2.6 percentage points to 13.3% for youth workers (ages 15-24), 2.7 percentage points to 7.6% for core-aged workers (ages 25-54) and 0.9 percentage points to 8.8% for older workers (ages 55+).
The participation rate for younger Nova Scotians decreased 1.8 percentage points to 63.1% in December 2020. For core-aged workers, the participation rate was up 0.9 percentage points to 88.2% while the participation rate for older workers increased 0.2 percentage points to 33.1% in December.
Compared to November 2020, employment rates were down for all age groups. Employment rate for youth decreased 3.2 percentage points to 54.7% and 1.5 percentage points to 81.5% for core-aged workers. For older workers, the employment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 30.2%.
Compared with February 2020, employment rates are down for youth (-8.3 percentage points), core-aged (-0.6 percentage points) and older workers (-1.1 percentage points) compared to February 2020.
Comparing December to February 2020, the decline in employment mostly show up as a decline in the labour force for youth. For core-aged, the employment decline (1,200) and growing labour force (+1,700) has resulted in increase in unemployment (+2,900). For older workers, the decline in employment shows up in increased unemployment instead of a decline in the labour force.
Males and Females
In December, the monthly unemployment rate increased 2.2 percentage points to 10.0% for males and increased 2.2 percentage points to 7.2% for females.
The monthly participation rate was down 0.2 percentage points for males to 64.0% and rose 0.5 percentage points to 58.6% for females.
The employment rate was down 1.6 percentage points to 57.6 for males and 0.8 percentage points to 54.4 for females.
Compared with February 2020, male labour force was down 5,900 (-2.3%) in December while female labour force was down 2,600 (-1.0%). Male employment was down 8,400 (-3.5%) while female employment was down 3,700(-1.6%). The number of unemployed males has increased 2,500 and the number of unemployed females is 1,100 higher. The male population not in the labour force increased by 9,200 from February to December while the number of females not in the labour force grew by 6,000.
Sectors and Industries
The month employment decline in December was in private sector employees with a 12,200 decline. Public sector employees increased by 2,000 and self-employment was higher by 600 compared to last month. Compared to February 2020, employment remains lower in the private sector (-26,700) and is higher in public sector employees (+12,200) and self-employed (+2,300).
For December, goods-producing sector employment was mostly unchanged (+100) with small only changes in subsectors.
Service-producing sector employment decreased 9,600 in December. The employment declines were concentrated in accommodation and food services (-7,100) and information, culture an recreation (-1,700). Professional, scientific and technical services (+700), business building and other support services (+500) were the only gains in service subsectors. The other subsectors all had small declines or were unchanged (fire, insurance, real estate and leasing).
Employment since February 2020 remains 800 lower in goods-producing industries with the lower employment levels in manufacturing (-2,200), forestry, fishing and mining (-1,100) and construction (-400). Agriculture (+2,500) and utilities (+500) have higher employment levels than February 2020.
Service-producing employment is lower by 11,300 since February 2020 with the lower levels in wholesale and retail trade (-7,500), accommodation and food service (-12,100), and information, culture and recreation (-4,700) accounting for the largest number of job losses that have not been recovered.
Employment levels in December 2020 are also lower in transportation and warehousing (-900), and business, building and other support services (-800) than February 2020.
Employment levels are higher in December 2020 than February 2020 in educational services (+5,700), professional, scientific, and technical services (+4,200), finance, insurance and real estate (+2,300), public administration (+1,100), other services (+900) and health care and social assistance (+400).
Regions – December 2020 vs December 2019 (unadjusted 3 month moving average)
Compared with December 2019, Cape Breton employment decline by 3,800 while the labour force is down 4,000. The number of unemployed declined 200 and the unemployment rate increased 0.5 percentage points to 12.4%.
For the North Shore region, the labour force declined by 4,100 while employment was down by 2,700. The number of unemployed declined by 1,300 and the unemployment rate has decreased 1.4 percentage points to 6.4%.
The Annapolis Valley reported a decline of 2,200 in the labour force and a decline of 1,600 in employment compared to December 2019 data. Unemployment was down by 700. As a result, the unemployment rate declined 0.7 percentage points to 4.7% over the past year. There are 2,600 additional people not in the labour force.
Compared to a year ago, the Southern region experienced a decrease of 600 in labour force and 200 in employment. The number of unemployed decreased by 400 while the unemployment rate decreased 0.8 percentage points to 8.9%.
In the Halifax region, the labour force recorded an increase of 5,000 while employment has increased 3,800 compared to December 2019. With unemployment increasing 1,200, the unemployment rate increased 0.4 percentage points to 7.1%. The number of persons not in the labour force increased by 3,000 in Halifax from a year ago.
Provincial Comparisons
Nine provinces reported decreasing employment in December along with the 0.2% increase in British Columbia. Nova Scotia (-2.0%) posted the largest monthly decline across provinces. Employment decreased 0.3% month-over-month in Canada.
Statistics Canada notes that there were increased restrictions on certain economic activities in a number of provinces, including Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta. Previously-imposed restrictions remained in effect for Quebec and Manitoba.
Compared to February 2020, the labour force has increased in Newfoundland and Labrador (+0.4%), New Brunswick (+1.2%), Ontario (+0.8%), and British Columbia (+0.9%) with all other provinces reporting declines and Canada (-0.1%) being mostly unchanged. The largest decline in the labour force since February 2020 has been in Saskatchewan (-3.0%).
All provinces report lower employment in December than February. The largest employment declines since February is in Manitoba (-5.8%), Alberta (-5.4%) and Prince Edward Island (-5.1%). Employment is essentially unchanged (-0.0%, -100 jobs) in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Unemployment rates was up in six provinces in December 2020, declines in the other four provinces. The highest unemployment rate for November 2020 is in Newfoundland and Labrador at 12.3% and the lowest is in Quebec at 6.7%. Canada’s unemployment rate was 8.6% in December 2020.
National Comparisons: Cities (Monthly, 3 month moving average)
The unemployment rate for Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in December 2020 was 7.3% (seasonally adjusted 3 month moving average). Quebec City at 4.1% had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs while the highest was in Peterborough (13.5%).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for Halifax was 63.1%, unchanged compared to last month. Peterborough (48.1%) had the lowest employment rate, while Calgary (65.3%) the highest.
Halifax’s employment (3 month moving average) for December 2020 was up 0.2 % compared to the November 2020 result. The employment level (Oct-Dec) average compared to Sept-Nov average was up by the largest amount in Saint John and Hamilton (both at 2.2%) and decreased the most in Barrier (-3.3%).
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
Sources:
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0287-01 Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0294-01 Labour force characteristics by census metropolitan area, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0293-01 Labour force characteristics by economic region, three-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0355-01 Employment by industry, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, and trend-cycle, last 5 months (x 1,000)
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0288-01 Employment by class of worker, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months (x 1,000)
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