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Thomas StorringDirector – Economics and Statistics
Tel: 902-424-2410Email: thomas.storring@novascotia.ca

May 27, 2021
US GDP 2021 Q1 (SECOND ESTIMATE)

 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the second estimate of Q1 2021 US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) today.

US real GDP growth was 6.4% (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) in Q1 2021, the same as in the advance estimates.  This is the third quarter of GDP growth as the US economy rebounds from pandemic restrictions in the first half of 2020. US real GDP in Q1 2021 was 0.9% lower than in Q4 2019 (prior to the economic impacts of COVID-19).

US economic growth in the latest quarter comes from rising personal consumer expenditures (+11.3%, seasonally adjusted annualized rate), investment (residential +12.7%, nonresidential +10.8%), government spending (federal +13.9%, state and local +0.8%).  Private inventory investment was negative (-$92.9 billion), imports rose (+6.7%) and exports were down (-2.9%). Elevated government assistance payments were made in Q1.

Compared with advance estimates, personal consumer expenditure growth, investment (residential and nonresidential) were revised up while exports, private inventory investment and state/local government spending were revised down.  Imports were also revised up (offsetting upward revisions).

 

A seasonally adjusted annualized rate shows what the percent change would be if the quarterly rate was compounded for four quarters. Reporting annualized rates facilitates comparability between annual and quarterly growth but can exaggerate change when series are volatile. US GDP did not grew by 6.4% from Q4 2020 to Q1 2021.  Rather it would take four quarters of compounded growth at the same pace as reported in Q1 to increase US GDP by 6.4%. US real GDP increased 1.6% from Q4 2020 to Q1 2021 (seasonally adjustd, non-annualized).  

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis



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