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June 04, 2021LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - MAY 2021 Labour force survey results reflect the period from May 9 to 15. Compared to the April reference week, several provinces continued or tightened public health restrictions. Ontario measures from April continued with stay-at-home order and remote schooling. Alberta and Manitoba closed personal care services, recreational facilities and in-person dining while limiting retail store capacity and transitioned to remote learning. Nova Scotia began a province-wide shutdown on April 28 with closing non-essential retail and shifting to remote learning for schools; border restrictions were tightened on May 10. Some regions of New Brunswick and Quebec eased restriction between April and May LFS.
Nova Scotia’s seasonally adjusted employment level was down 22,200 (-4.8%) to 443,700 in May 2021 as third-wave lockdown measures reduced employment in the month.
Nova Scotia’s employment was 5.0% below the pre-COVID level of February 2020 with 23,300 fewer jobs. Nova Scotia’s job loss in May 2021 during third-wave lockdowns were smaller than during the first wave when employment decreased 75,000 over March and April 2020.
Nova Scotia’s labour force declined 15,100 (-3.0%) to 492,100 in May. The labour force in May was lower by 15,500 (-3.1%) than the February 2020 level with population growth of 6,900 (+0.8%) over the same period. The number of unemployed persons increased 7,200 compared to last month and is 7,800 higher compared to February 2020.
With a smaller decline in labour force than employment, the unemployment rate increased 1.7 percentage points from last month to 9.8% in May 2021.
In May, full-time employment declined 12,700 (-3.3%) and part-time employment was down 9,600 (-11.1%). Compared to February 2020, full-time employment is lower by 9,100 (-2.4%) while part time employment declined by 14,200 (-15.6%).
The participation rate was down 1.9 percentage points to 60.1% in May 2021. This is 2.4 percentage points below the February 2020 level. The number of persons not in the labour force was up 15,800 (+5.1%) to 326,600 in May 2021, below levels seen during the first-wave in April and May 2020.
In addition to the employment decline from February 2020, there were elevated numbers of persons who are counted as employed, but have zero hours (for non-routine reasons like vacation, maternity/parental leave, labour dispute) or had their hours cut by 50% or more.
In May 2021 in Nova Scotia there were 45,900 persons employed but at less than 50% of their usual hours (including zero hours), up from 24,900 in April 2021 and still elevated by 26,100 compared to 19,800 in February 2020. Compared to first-wave lockdown in March-May 2020 there are fewer persons employed with substantially fewer hours in May 2021.
Employment losses and substantially reduced hours combine to account for 10.6% of Nova Scotia’s February 2020 employment level an increase from 1.3% in April 2021; this measure reached a peak of 28.1% in April 2020. The largest total employment/hour impact in May 2021 was Nova Scotia (10.6%) and the smallest impacts were in British Columbia (2.1%).
Statistics Canada reported in supplemental information that Nova Scotia had an increase of 8,500 (Apr-21 to May-21) of people who were not in the labour force but wanted to work, currently at 23,300 people. Lower in May 2021 than during April 2020 when there was 55,600 people in wanting work and not participating in the labour force.
The labour underutilization rate (COVID-19 impact definition) is the proportion of the potential labour force (labour force + those wanting work) that is either unemployed, not in labour force but wanted work or employed but have lost the majority of their usual hours.
In February 2020, Nova Scotia's labour underutilization rate was 14.1%. This underutilization increased to 37.1% in April 2020 and subsequently fell 15.5% in April 2021. For May 2021, labour underutilization increased significantly with an increase to 22.8%.
Newfoundland and Labrador reported the highest labour underutilization in May 2021 at 23.4% while Saskatchewan (13.7%) reported the lowest.
Age Cohorts
When compared to February 2020, the shortfall in employment was mostly attributable to declines in the youth (ages 15-24) and the core-age cohorts (ages 25-54). Employment among core-aged workers declined 9,800 while labour force declined by 6,000 from February 2020 to May 2021. In the youth cohort (ages 15-24), employment declined 12,400 and labour force was down 12,000. For older workers (aged 55+), employment was down 1,100 while labour force was up 2,500.
The unemployment rate increased across all age groups in Nova Scotia in May 2021 with youth cohort recording the largest increase. Compared to the previous month, the unemployment rate increased 3.9 percentage points to 16.4% for youth workers (ages 15-24), and 1.7 percentage points to 8.4% for core-aged workers (aged 25-54). For older workers (ages 55 and over), the unemployment rate went up 0.8 percentage points to 9.7% in May.
The participation rate and employment rate were down across all age cohorts in May with the largest declines seen in youth.
The participation rate for younger Nova Scotians declined by 6.3 percentage points to 62.9% in May. For core-aged workers, the participation rate was down 1.6 percentage points to 86.3% while for older workers, the participation rate declined by 0.8 percentage points to 33.4%.
Compared to April 2021, employment rate for youth workers declined by 8.0 percentage points to 52.5% in May. The employment rate was down 2.9 percentage points to 79.1% for core-aged workers, and 0.9 percentage points to 30.2% for older Nova Scotians.
Compared with February 2020, employment rates were down for youth (-10.6 percentage points), core-aged workers (-2.8 percentage points), and older workers (-1.0 percentage points).
Males and Females
Compared to pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020, female employment was down 12,800 and male employment was down 10,500 in May 2021. Over the same period, female labour force declined 9,300 while male labour force was down 6,200. The number of unemployed females increased 3,500 and the number of males was up 4,300. The number of females not in the labour force was up 12,900 from February 2020 while the male population not in the labour force was up 9,500.
In May 2021, the monthly unemployment rate increased 2.1 percentage points to 8.8% for female workers and 1.5 percentage points to 10.9% for male workers.
The participation rate decline by 1.9 percentage points both for female and male workers, to 57.0% and 63.5%, respectively in May 2021.
The monthly employment rate was down 2.9 percentage points to 52.0% for females and was down 2.6 percentage points to 56.6% for males.
Sectors and Industries
The monthly employment decline from April to May was in both the private sector employees (-15,100) and public sector employees (-8,800). Self-employed increased 1,800 month-over-month in May.
For May, goods-producing sector employment was down 900 jobs with forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying and oil and gas declining 900 jobs and only minimal changes in the other subsectors.
Service-producing sector employment decreased 21,200 in May. Employment declines were largest in wholesale and retail (-6,700) and educational services (-6,700). Other notable declines were in accommodation and food services (-3,400), information, culture and recreation (-2,400), and health care and social assistance (including day care) (-1,900). No service sector had a significant increase in the month.
For May 2021 compared to February 2020, employment is lower in the private sector (-31,800) while self-employed are unchanged and public sector employees (+8,600) have increased.
Employment since February 2020 was 3,700 higher in goods-production industries with higher levels in construction (+2,200) agriculture (+1,900), utilities (+800) and forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas (+200) offsetting declines in manufacturing (-1,400).
Service-producing employment was lower by 26,900 since February 2020 with the lower levels in wholesale and retail trade (-15,300), accommodation and food service (-13,000), information, culture and recreation (-5,600), educational services (-1,600), business, building and other support service (-1,500, including call centres), and health care and social assistance (-700) being at lower levels.
Employment levels were higher in May 2021 than February 2020 in some service subsectors with the largest increases in professional, scientific, and technical services (+5,900), and transportation and warehousing (+2,800).
Regions – May 2021 vs May 2020 (unadjusted 3 month moving average)
Regional results for May are three month moving averages from the period March-May. Changes do not reflect the full extend of employment decline observed in monthly results for the province as a whole.
Compared with May 2020, Cape Breton employment declined by 500 (-1.1%) while labour force was down 2,500 (-4.6%). The number of unemployed people increased 1,900 and the unemployment rate increased by 2.7 percentage points to 15.5% in May 2021.
For the North Shore region, the labour force increased 5,500 and employment was up 7,800. The number of unemployed people was down 2,300 which resulted in a 4.1 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate to 7.9%. The number of persons not in the labour force declined by 5,900 compared to May 2020.
The Annapolis Valley reported an increase both in labour force (+7,500) and employment (+8,600) when compared to May 2020. The unemployment rate declined 3.3 percentage points 9.1%. The number of persons not in the labour force declined 7,000 from a year earlier.
In the Southern region, labour force increased 3,600 while employment grew by 6,500 people when compared to May 2020. The number of unemployed was down 2,800 and the unemployment rate declined 5.9 percentage points to 7.3% in May 2021. The number of persons not in the labour force declined 4,100 from a year earlier.
In the Halifax region, the labour force posted an increase of 23,600 (+10.1%) while employment has increased 25,100 (+12.0%) compared to May 2020. The number of unemployed was down 1,500 and the unemployment rate fell to 9.1%. The number of persons not in the labour force decreased by 16,800 in Halifax from a year ago.
Provincial Comparisons
Employment declined month-over-month in seven provinces in May with Nova Scotia reporting the largest decline (-4.8%). Saskatchewan (+0.7%) reported the largest gain followed by Prince Edward Island (+0.4%).
Nationally, employment was down 0.4% from last month in May.
Compared to February 2020, the labour force is lower in seven provinces including Nova Scotia. British Columbia (+1.1%) has seen the largest growth in labour force from pre-pandemic levels. The largest declines in the labour force since February 2020 to May 2021 was in Nova Scotia (-3.1%).
Employment is lower compared to pre-pandemic levels in all provinces. The largest employment declines since February 2020 are in Nova Scotia (-5.0%) and Ontario (-4.1%).
The highest unemployment rate for May 2021 was in Newfoundland and Labrador at 13.4% and the lowest was in Saskatchewan, at 6.3%. Canada’s unemployment rate was 8.2% in May. Unemployment rates were higher in all provinces compared to February 2020.
National Comparisons: Cities (Monthly, 3 month moving average)
The unemployment rate for Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in May 2021 was 8.9% (seasonally adjusted 3 month moving average). Trois-Rivieres at 4.2% had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs while the highest was in Belleville (11.0%).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for Halifax was 62.4%, down 1.6 percentage points compared to last month. Abbotsford-Mission (64.8%) had the highest employment rate while Belleville (52.1%) had the lowest among CMAs.
Halifax’s employment (3 month moving average) for May 2021 was down 2.3% compared to the April 2021 result. The employment level (Mar-May) average compared to previous average (Feb-Apr) was up by the largest in Peterborough (+5.0%) and decreased the most in Belleville (-4.5%).
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
Sources:
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0287-01 Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0294-01 Labour force characteristics by census metropolitan area, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0293-01 Labour force characteristics by economic region, three-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0355-01 Employment by industry, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, and trend-cycle, last 5 months (x 1,000)
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0288-01 Employment by class of worker, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months (x 1,000)
Statistics Canada. Table: 14-10-0380-02 Labour force characteristics, three month moving average, seasonally adjusted (x 1,000)
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