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June 17, 2021NOVA SCOTIA QUARTERLY POPULATION ESTIMATES AS OF APRIL 1, 2021 The production of the demographic estimates are based on methods and models that allow reliable and accurate population estimates; however, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the assumptions of the models maybe invalid and administrative data sources are not optimal in terms of timeliness and completeness. Statistics Canada made adjustments to some components of the first quarter demographic estimates to account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These adjustments closely follow what was done in the second quarter of 2020. Details can be found in the Q2 2020 technical supplement.
Nova Scotia’s population increased by 2,877 between January 1, 2021 and April 1, 2021. The population as of April 1, 2021 was 982,326, the highest population for Nova Scotia on record. Since April 1, 2015 Nova Scotia's population has increased by 46,055. This quarter's increase reflects higher net interprovincial migration and immigrants.
There are seasonal patterns in quarterly population changes, particularly evident in births and migration. In the first quarter of 2021, Nova Scotia posted a population increase above the Q1 increases from recent years.
In the first quarter, Nova Scotia’s population increased 0.29% compared to the January 1 estimate, while the national population grew 0.22%. Compared with April 1, 2020 Nova Scotia’s population increased 0.54% (+5,283), while the national population grew by 0.40%.
Immigration from other countries has been a strong contributor to population growth in Nova Scotia in recent years. In Q1 2021 immigration increased from Q2, Q3 and Q4 2020 levels. Immigration was 996 in Q1 2021, lower than Q1 2020 (1187).
In this quarter, Nova Scotia saw a net gain of 905 non-permanent residents following on declines of 2289 in Q3 2020 and 343 in Q4 2020.
Nova Scotia’s natural population change (the number of births less the number of deaths) has been negative for several years. Between January 1, 2021 and March 31, 2021, there were 1,948 births and 2,668 deaths, amounting to a natural population decline of 720.
Nova Scotia posted another net increase in interprovincial migration with a gain of 1,870 persons. There were 4,700 in-migrants and 2,380 out-migrants to other provinces and territories. The net gain of 1,870 interprovincial migrants this quarter is the largest increase since Q3 1984 (2,111).
Out-migration from Nova Scotia to other provinces decreased by 1,402 compared to the first quarter of 2020. Out-migration decline in all provinces except Quebec. The largest declines in out-migration was to Ontario and Alberta.
Compared to Q1 2020, in-migrants to Nova Scotia decreased by 216. The largest in-migrant declines were from fewer people moving from New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, and prairie provinces. In-migrants from Ontario (+233), British Columbia (+103), and Quebec (+22) increased compared to Q1 2020.
Interprovincial migration to Nova Scotia was a net inflow of 1,870 persons in Q1 2021 (including the territories). The largest net inflows were from Ontario (+1,080), British Columbia (+174), and Alberta (+171).
Source: Statistics Canada.
Table 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterly
Table 17-10-0020-01 Estimates of the components of interprovincial migration, quarterly
Table 17-10-0040-01 Estimates of the components of international migration, quarterly
Table 17-10-0045-01 Estimates of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, quarterly
Table 17-10-0059-01 Estimates of the components of natural increase, quarterly
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