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October 18, 2021HOUSING STARTS, SEPTEMBER 2021 With September reference month results, year-over-year (September 2021 vs September 2020) and year-to-date (Jan-Sep 21 vs Jan-Sep 20) are in part showing the rebounds in economic activity from the unprecedented declines observed at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nova Scotia’s housing starts (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) totalled 4,592 units in September 2021. This was 94.2% above the revised 2,365 units started in August 2021. Housing starts in Halifax increased from 432 units to 2,627 (a six-fold increase). Outside of Halifax, housing starts were up from 1,933 units in August to 1,965 units in September.
Compared to September 2020, Nova Scotia’s housing starts were 31.8% lower with a 50.5% decline in Halifax and a 37.2% increase outside of Halifax.
Housing starts trended down across the province in the first half of 2020 before rebounding in the summer of 2020. From the summer of 2020 through spring 2021, housing starts were at elevated levels across the province. Over the summer of 2021, housing starts slowed significantly in the Halifax market while the decline outside the city has been slower.
In urban areas, housing starts for multiples are generally higher than for singles with greater variability month-to-month. The six-month moving average for singles had trended upward since early 2019 before a modest moderation in recent months. The six-month moving average for multiples rose during the summer months of 2018 and declined until the first quarter of 2019. After a period of fluctuation in 2019 and 2020, the six-month moving average for multiples has been at an elevated level in the first half of 2021. However, the six-month moving average for multiples has trended downward in recent months.
Every three months, Statistics Canada releases unadjusted quarterly results for Nova Scotia's housing starts, completions and units under construction. Note that starts and completions in this data are not shown at annualized rates. Although housing starts and housing completions generally match, there has been a long standing trend towards more units under construction, rising to just under 7,000 in the third quarter of 2021. The rise in the number of units under construction has been trending up since the late 1990s and was last at this level in the 1970s (when housing starts and completions were both at a higher pace than observed today).
In Canada, housing starts decreased 4.4% from the previous month to 251,151 units in September 2021. When compared to September 2020, housing starts in Canada were up 20.1%.
From August to September, housing starts were up in six provinces. Saskatchewan (+210.6%) and Nova Scotia (+94.2%) reported the largest monthly increases in housing starts while Prince Edward Island (-41.0%) and New Brunswick (-34.4%) reported the largest monthly declines.
During the first nine months of 2021, Nova Scotia's housing starts were up 6.3% compared to the same period last year. Halifax housing starts declined 9.0% while starts outside the city were up 36.9%. Canada’s housing starts increased 33.3%. Housing starts rose in all provinces with Newfoundland and Labrador posting the strongest growth (+84.6%), and Nova Scotia the slowest.
Note: Urban areas are defined as areas over 10,000 people
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 34-10-0135-01 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, under construction and completions, all areas, quarterly; Table 34-10-0158-01 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, all areas, Canada and provinces, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, monthly (x 1,000) ; Table 34-10-0156-01 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts in all centres 10,000 and over, Canada, provinces, and census metropolitan areas, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, monthly (x 1,000)
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