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December 23, 2021CANADA GDP BY INDUSTRY, OCTOBER 2021 With October reference month results, year-over-year (October 2021 vs October 2020) and year-to-date (Jan-Oct 21 vs Jan-Oct 20) are showing the rebounds in economic activity from the unprecedented declines observed at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada increased 0.8% in October 2021, following a 0.2% increase in September 2021. For the month, activity was up in 17 of 20 industrial sectors, with gains in services producing (+0.6%) and goods-producing industries (+1.6%).
The Canadian economy was 0.4% smaller when compared to pre-pandemic February 2020 with an annualized value of $2,002 billion (chained 2012 dollars) in October 2021.
Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate for real GDP points to 0.3% increase in November 2021. Accommodation and food services, wholesale trade, construction and arts and entertainment sectors were the leading contributors to growth. The official GDP data for November 2021 will be published on February 1, 2022.
Goods-Producing Industries
Goods-producing sector output grew 1.6% month-over-month in October 2021 with increases in every sub-sector.
Manufacturing rebounded 1.8% in October. Durable goods were up 1.9% with a rebound in transportation equipment manufacturing (+9.3%). Motor vehicle (+47.8%) and parts (+13.1%) manufacturing also rebounded in October, despite ongoing global supply chain issues that have disrupted production. Non-durable manufacturing grew 1.7% in October, more than offsetting the previous monthly decline, with the majority of subsectors expanding. Higher demand from motor vehicle and parts manufacturing drove increases in plastics and rubber products manufacturing (+5.8%), the leading contributor to non-durable growth this month.
Construction was up 1.6% as all sub-sectors saw increased activity in October. Residential building construction (+2.0%) led growth on higher home alterations and improvements, and an increase in multi-unit dwellings that more than offset declines in single-family home construction. Non-residential, repair, and engineering and other construction all grew for the month.
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction grew 1.5% in October reflecting the fifth increase in six months. Robust global demand, prices for energy products and the completion of planned maintenance at some oil sands upgraders contributed to growth in oil sands extraction in October (+3.9%). Oil and gas (except oil sands) fell 1.8% with lower crude extraction in the North Atlantic. Mining and quarrying was up 1.7% for the month on broad-based gains across the sector.
Agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing was up 2.3% in October on higher crop production.
Services-Producing Industries
Output of the services-producing sector increased 0.6% in October 2021, following a 0.4% increase in September.
Arts, entertainment and recreation sector was up 7.1% with increases in all subsectors. Capacity limits on large group gatherings continued to ease over this period.
Real estate and rental and leasing increased 0.8%, the largest increase since December 2020. Home resale activity was up across the country, leading to an 8.8% increase in the output of offices of real estate agents and brokers. Legal services were also up 1.6% in October reflecting this resale activity.
Professional, scientific and technical services sector was up 1.2% with increases in all industries, led by computer systems design and related services (+1.5%).
Transportation and warehousing was up 1.6% in October. Air transportation (+19.0%) experienced double-digit growth for the fourth time in five months. The sector remains approximately 69% below the January 2020 level of activity.
Retail trade was up 1.0% with 8 of 12 subsectors posting gains, led by sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores. Motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 1.9% with higher activity at new car dealers.
Finance and insurance saw 0.5% growth in October on increased market activity, specifically on debt instruments, and gains in equity mutual funds. Insurance carriers edged down 0.1%.
Accommodation and food services sectors decreased 0.5% in October, as growth in accommodation was more than offset by further declines in food services and drinking places.
October 2021 vs February 2020
Canadian real GDP was 0.4% lower when compared to February 2020.
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery to date, the service sectors with the current largest declines in activity are in management of companies and enterprises (-39.3%), arts, entertainment and recreation (-27.4%), transportation and warehousing (-14.2%) and accommodation and food services (-12.7%). For October 2021, all goods-producing industries were at lower levels of activity than February 2020 except mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Activity has increased in some private service sectors compared to February 2020: finance and insurance (+6.4%), retail trade (+5.3%), professional, scientific and technical services (+4.2%), health care and social assistance (+3.3%) and real estate and rental and leasing (+3.2%). Public sector GDP has increased from February 2020.
Year-Over-Year (October 2021 vs October 2020)
Canadian real GDP was 3.8% higher than in October 2020. The largest increases, in percentage terms, have been in arts, entertainment and recreation, accommodation and food services, mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction, other services (personal, repair), and health care and social assistance. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, manufacturing, and management of companies and wholesale trade had lower GDP in October 2021 than October 2020.
Year-to-Date (Jan-Oct 2021 vs Jan-Oct 2020)
The Canadian economy in the first ten months of 2021 increased 5.1% compared to the same period in 2020.
Compared to the same period last year, the largest increases in activity have been in health care and social assistance (+9.9%), accommodation and food services (+9.4%), retail trade (+9.2%), and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (+9.0%). Activity decreased the most in management of companies (-21.9%) and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (-8.8%)
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0434-01 Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by industry, monthly (x 1,000,000)
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