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January 07, 2022LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - DECEMBER 2021 Labour force survey results reflect the period from December 5 to 11. Public health measures in place during the reference week were similar to those in place during the November reference week. The widespread emergence of the Omicron variant and associated public health measures occurred after the December reference week.
Nova Scotia’s seasonally adjusted employment level increased 100 (+0.0%) to 470,500 in December 2021 following on increases the previous six months as the economy reopened after the third-wave restrictions in spring 2021.
Nova Scotia’s employment was 0.7% (+3,500) above the pre-COVID employment level of February 2020. This is the second month Nova Scotia’s employment has surpassed the pre-pandemic benchmark. The December employment level is also the highest employment on record in Nova Scotia since modern Labour Force Survey records were kept.
Nova Scotia’s labour force decreased 1,600 (-0.3%) to 510,500 in December. The labour force in December was higher by 2,900 (+0.6%) than the February 2020 level while the population grew by 16,500 (+2.0%) over the same period. The number of unemployed persons fell by 1,500 compared to November 2021 and was 500 lower compared to February 2020.
With an increase in employment and smaller labour force, the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points from last month to 7.9% in December 2021.
In December, full-time employment was up 1,500 (+0.4%) to 384,100 positions. This is the highest level of full-time employment for Nova Scotia since modern Labour Force Survey records began in 1976. Part-time employment decreased 1,400 (-1.6%) to 86,400. Compared to February 2020, full-time employment was higher by 8,000 (+2.1%) while part time employment was lower by 4,500 (-5.0%). (Note that changes in full time and past time employment can include changes of hours within the same job.)
Nova Scotia’s participation rate was down 0.4 percentage points to 61.6% in December 2021. This was 0.9 percentage points below the February 2020 level. The number of persons not in the labour force increased 3,300 (+1.0%) to 317,800 in December 2021, still 13,600 (+4.5%) higher than pre-pandemic levels (February 2020).
In addition to the employment decline from February 2020, there were elevated numbers of persons who are counted as employed, but had zero hours (for non-routine reasons such as vacation, maternity/parental leave, labour dispute) or had their hours reduced by 50% or more.
In December 2021 in Nova Scotia there were 27,100 persons employed but at less than 50% of their usual hours (including zero hours), down from 31,100 in November and lower than 45,900 in May 2021. Just before the third-wave lockdown (March 2021), there were an elevated number of people employed at fewer than usual hours at 27,700 persons. Pre-pandemic in February 2020 there were an estimated 19,800 persons with reduced hours.
Employment losses and substantially reduced hours combine to account for 0.8% of Nova Scotia’s February 2020 employment level. The rate peaked at 28.1% in April 2020. The largest total employment/reduced hour impacts in December 2021 was in New Brunswick (2.4%). Six provinces have negative rates with employment growth since February 2020 exceeding the still elevated number of people with reduced hours.
Statistics Canada reported in supplemental information that from November to December 2021 Nova Scotia had an increase of 300 people who were not in the labour force but wanted to work, currently at 15,400 people. The number of people not in labour force and wanting work is 2,100 more than February 2020.
The labour underutilization rate (COVID-19 impact definition) is the proportion of the potential labour force (labour force + those wanting work) that is either unemployed, not in labour force but wanted work or employed but have lost the majority of their usual hours.
In February 2020, Nova Scotia's labour underutilization rate was 14.1%. This underutilization increased to 37.1% in April 2020 and subsequently fell to 15.5% in April 2021, before rising to 22.8% in May 2021. The labour underutilization rate of 15.1% in September 2021 was the lowest since start of the pandemic. In December 2021 the rate decreased 1 percentage point to 15.7%
Newfoundland and Labrador reported the highest labour underutilization in December 2021 at 20.8% and Quebec (10.6%) reported the lowest.
Age Cohorts
In December 2021, the youth (aged 15-24) labour force was down 300 while employment fell by 200. Among core aged workers (aged 25-54), employment grew (+1,400) while the labour force declined (-200). The labour force and employment fell among older workers (aged 55+) compared to last month.
Compared to November 2021, December unemployment rates were unchanged for youth at 13.9%. The unemployment rate for older workers was up 0.2 percentage points to 7.6% and was down 0.5 percentage points to 6.5% for core-aged workers.
The participation rate for fell 0.4 percentage points to 69.5% for youth, 0.3 percentage points to 87.4% for core-aged workers, and 0.3 percentage points to 33.8% for older workers.
The employment rate was down for youth (-0.2 percentage points) and older workers (-0.4 percentage points) while rising (+0.1 percentage points) for core-aged workers in December 2021 compared to November 2021.
When compared to February 2020, youth saw lower levels of employment in December 2021 while core aged workers and older workers had higher employment levels.
In the youth cohort, employment was down 4,200 while the labour force was down 4,600. Employment among core-aged workers was up 3,700 while the labour force has increased 2,300. For older workers (aged 55+), employment was up 4,000 while labour force was up 5,300; the population aged 55+ increased by 12,500 from February 2020 to December 2021.
Compared to February 2020, the December participation rate was down 3.5 percentage points for youth and 0.6 percentage points fore core-aged workers while it rose 0.3 percentage points for older workers.
Compared with February 2020, employment rates were down for youth (-3.2 percentage points) and core-aged workers (-0.2 percentage points) while the employment rate was up for older workers was unchanged.
Males and Females
In December 2021, the female labour force was up 1,300 while female employment rose 1,500. Male employment declined 1,500 as the labour force fell by 2,700 from November 2021.
Compared with November 2021, the December 2021 the participation rate rose 0.1 percentage points for female workers to 59.2% and declined 0.8 percentage points for male workers at 64.2%.
The monthly employment rate was down 0.5 percentage points to 58.9% for males and up 0.2 percentage points to 54.8% for females.
In December 2021, the monthly unemployment rate was down 0.4 percentage points to 8.3% for male workers and down 0.2 percentage points to 7.4% for female workers.
Compared to February 2020, the employment rate declined 0.8 percentage points for males and 0.7 percentage points for females.
Compared to pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020, female employment was up by 2,000 and male employment was up 1,400 in December 2021. Compared to February 2020, the female labour force has increased 3,200 while male labour force declined 200. The number of unemployed females increased 1,100 while the number of males unemployed is 1,700 less than in February 2020. The number of females not in the labour force was up 5,400 from February 2020 while the male population not in the labour force was up 8,200.
Female full-time employment was up 2,500 compared to February 2020 while declining by 400 in part-time employment. Male full-time employment was up 5,400 from pre-pandemic levels while males with part-time employment was down 4,000.
Sectors and Industries
December employment was lower for private sector employees (-2,500) and higher for public sector employees (+1,800) and self-employed (+700) compared to November 2021.
Employment in goods-producing industries rose for the third consecutive month, increasing by 700 in December 2021. Decreases in construction (1,800) were offset with gains in agriculture (+800), forestry, fishing, mining/quarrying (+1,200) and utilities (+500). Manufacturing employment was largely unchanged for the month.
Service-producing industries’ employment decreased 700 in December following a 2,900 gain last month. The largest employment declines in December were in wholesale/retail (-2,700) and transportation/warehousing (-1,000). Gains were made among accommodation and food services (+1,200), professional, scientific and technical services (+1,000), public administration (+1,000), and educational services (+800).
Comparing December 2021 with February 2020, employment was lower in the private sector (-15,700) while self-employment (+5,700) and public sector employment (+13,500) have increased.
December 2021 employment is the same as February 2020 in goods-production industries with lower employment in manufacturing (-2,400), forestry, fishing, and mining (-1,000), and construction (-400) offset by higher employment in in utilities (+2,300), and agriculture (+1,400).
Nova Scotia’s service-producing employment was higher by 3,500 than the pre-pandemic threshold with significant changes in subsectors. Employment gains from February 2020 through December 2021 have occurred in professional, scientific and technical services (+9,400), transportation/warehousing (+5,000), educational services (+3,800) and health care and social assistance (+2,500). Employment levels remains significantly lower in some industries: accommodation and food services (-8,200), information, culture and recreation (-4,300), and wholesale/retail (-5,200). Other sectors were little changed.
Regions – December 2021 vs December 2020 (unadjusted 3 month moving average)
Regional results for December are three month moving averages from the period October-December. Changes do not reflect the full extent of employment volatility observed in monthly results for the province as a whole.
Compared with December 2020, Cape Breton employment increased by 1,200 while labour force was up by 2,300. The number of unemployed people increased by 1,000 and the unemployment rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 13.9% in December 2021. The number of persons not in the labour force was down 2,700 compared to the same period one year ago.
For the North Shore region, the labour force increased 3,300 and employment was up 2,300. The number of unemployed people was up by 1,000 which resulted in a 1.1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 7.6%. The number of persons not in the labour force declined by 2,700 compared to December 2020.
The Annapolis Valley reported an increase both in labour force (+3,200) and employment (+1,600) when compared to December 2020. The unemployment rate increased 2.4 percentage points to 7.2%. The number of persons not in the labour force declined 2,300 from a year earlier.
In the Southern region, labour force increased 2,900 while employment grew by 1,700 people when compared to December 2020. The number of unemployed was up 1,200 and the unemployment rate was up 1.8 percentage points to 10.7% in December 2021. The number of persons not in the labour force declined 2,500 from a year earlier.
In the Halifax region, the labour force posted an increase of 2,600 while employment has increased 6,400 compared to December 2020. The number of unemployed was down 4,000 and the unemployment rate fell 1.6 percentage points to 5.7%. The number of persons not in the labour force increased by 5,900 in Halifax from a year ago.
Provincial Comparisons
Employment increased from November to December 2021 in seven provinces in December with largest gains in Saskatchewan (+1.1%) and Ontario (+0.6%). Newfoundland and Labrador employment declined 2.0%.
Nationally, employment was up 0.3% from November to December 2021.
Canada's labour force grew 0.1% in December with increases in six provinces, led by Saskatchewan (+1.3%). The largest decline was in New Brunswick (-1.2%).
Employment was higher in seven provinces compared to pre-pandemic levels. The largest increases were in Ontario and British Columbia (both at +2.1%). Canada employment level is 1.3% higher than it was in February 2020. New Brunswick, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan to report employment below February 2020 levels.
Compared to February 2020, the labour force has increased in seven provinces including Nova Scotia. British Columbia (+2.3%) and Ontario (+2.7%) have seen the largest growth in labour force from pre-pandemic levels. The largest decline in the labour force since February 2020 to December 2021 was in Saskatchewan (-1.6%).
The highest unemployment rate for December 2021 was in Newfoundland and Labrador at 11.6% and the lowest rate was 4.6% in Quebec. Canada’s unemployment rate was 5.9% in December 2021. Unemployment rates are lower than February 2020 in five provinces: Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan and Alberta.
National Comparisons: Cities (Monthly, 3 month moving average)
The unemployment rate for Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in December 2021 was 6.2% (seasonally adjusted 3 month moving average). Quebec City at 2.6% had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs while the highest was in Peterborough (9.5%).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for Halifax was 63.0%, unchanged compared to last month. Guelph (67.9%) had the highest employment rate while Belleville (54.7%) had the lowest among CMAs.
Halifax’s employment (3 month moving average) for December 2021 was up 0.2% compared to the November 2021 result. The employment level (Oct-Dec) average compared to previous average (Sept-Nov) was up by the largest amount in Belleville (+10.7%) and decreased the most in Peterborough (-3.4%).
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
Sources:
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0287-01 Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0294-01 Labour force characteristics by census metropolitan area, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0293-01 Labour force characteristics by economic region, three-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0355-01 Employment by industry, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, and trend-cycle, last 5 months (x 1,000)
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0288-01 Employment by class of worker, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months (x 1,000)
Statistics Canada. Table: 14-10-0380-02 Labour force characteristics, three month moving average, seasonally adjusted (x 1,000)
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