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December 21, 2022ANALYSIS OF NOVA SCOTIA'S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR NOVEMBER 2022 TRENDS – November 2022
Nova Scotia’s All-Items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 8.6% year-over-year in November 2022. Inflation rate in Nova Scotia has been fluctuating since peaking at 9.3% in June 2022. Nationally, consumer prices increased 6.8% year over year in November, following a 6.9% increase in October 2022.
Inflation was highest in Prince Edward Island (+9.7%) while Ontario (+6.4%) had the lowest. Compared to the previous month, prices rose at a faster pace in November compared with October in seven provinces.
Nova Scotia’s consumer price inflation (year-over-year) excluding food and energy increased 5.1% in November 2022. Consumer prices excluding food and energy were up in all provinces led by Manitoba (+6.6%) and British Columbia (+6.5%). Newfoundland and Labrador had the smallest increase at 4.1%.
For Canada, consumer price inflation excluding food and energy increased 5.4% year-over-year in November, following a gain of 5.3% in October.
The CPI for food in Nova Scotia increased 11.5% in November, up from the 9.8% year-over-year increase reported in October 2022. All provinces recorded year-over-year increase in food prices led by Prince Edward Island (+12.4%). The lowest food inflation was reported in British Columbia (+9.0%).
Nationally, food prices rose (+10.3%) in November 2022 on a year-over-year basis. Prices for meat (+6.2%), fresh fruit (+11.0%), and non-alcoholic (+11.0%) increased at a faster pace in November 2022 compared with November 2021, contributing to the acceleration in food prices. Prices for food purchased from stores (+11.4%) continued to increase at a faster rate year over year than the all-items CPI since December 2021. Canadians paid more for edible fats and oils (+26.0%), coffee and tea (+16.8%), eggs (+16.7%), cereal products (+15.7%), and bakery products (+15.5%).
Year-over-year, shelter costs in Nova Scotia increased 11.3% in November 2022.
In November, shelter prices increased 7.2% year-over-year across Canada. With increasing interest rates, mortgage interest costs increased 14.5% year-over-year in November, posting the highest increase since February 1983. The rent index increased 5.9% in November, following a 4.7% increase in October. The homeowners' replacement cost index, which is related to the price of new homes, slowed in November (+5.8%) after increasing 6.9% in October. This index has decelerated, on a year-over-year basis, every month since May 2022 (+11.1%).
Compared to November 2021, shelter prices were up in all provinces with the largest increase in Prince Edward Island (+14.7%) and the smallest increase in Alberta (+6.5%).
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year-over-year growth in CPI) for energy was 29.1% in November, above the national average of 13.9%. Prince Edward Island (+33.7%) posted the largest year-over-year increases while Alberta (+5.4%) had the smallest change in the energy index.
Energy prices were lower in six provinces compared to October 2022. For Canada, consumers paid 3.2% less in gasoline in November compared to October 2022, following a 9.2% increase recorded in October. The reopening of refineries in the western United States contributed to lower prices in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year-over-year growth in CPI) excluding energy was 6.3% in November compared to a national rate of 6.2%. Manitoba and Prince Edward Island posted the largest year-over-year gain while Newfoundland and Labrador had the smallest change in the CPI excluding energy.
Major Components for November 2022
The following table shows the price increases specific to Nova Scotia for the major components of the CPI this month.
The main contributors to the monthly change (November 2022 vs October 2022) in Nova Scotia CPI were:
- Fresh vegetables (+10.0%)
- Mortgage interest cost (+2.5%)
- Rent (+1.2%)
- Gasoline (-3.6%)
- Traveller accommodation (-10.6%)
- Internet access services (200212=100) (-2.5%)
The main contributors to the yearly change (November 2022 vs November 2021) in Nova Scotia CPI were:
- Gasoline (+13.7%)
- Purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles (+7.8%)
- Mortgage interest cost (+14.5%)
- Home entertainment equipment, parts and services (-8.9%)
- Passenger vehicle registration fees (-28.2%)
- Telephone services (-3.9%)
Long Run Trends
In November 2022, the all-items CPI year-over-year inflation rate for Nova Scotia was 8.6%, above the national inflation rate of 6.8%.
Nova Scotia’s CPI excluding food and energy increased 5.1%. Canada CPI excluding food and energy rose 5.4%. The Nova Scotia CPI excluding food and energy was previously higher in March 2003 (+5.1%).
Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation
Compared to November 2021, CPI-Common increased 6.7%, CPI-Median increased 5.0% and CPI-Trim was up 5.3% in Canada. All-items CPI excluding eight of the most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada and excluding the effect of changes in indirect taxes (formerly referred to as CPIX), rose 5.8% year-over-year. The change in the core inflation measures was unchanged for CPI-trim and up 0.3 percentage points for CPI-common, and up 0.1 percentage points for CPI-median from the previous 12-month period.
Appendix Tables and Charts
Basket Update - May 2022
As part of schedule update, Statistics Canada has updated the basket weights based on 2021 expenditures. A used vehicle price was introduced into the CPI Compared to the previous basket reference year of 2020 for Nova Scotia, increase weight for transportation (+2.04 percentage points) and clothing and footwear (+0.52 percentage points) were offset by lower weights for food (-0.5 percentage points), shelter (-0.53 percentage points), health and personal care (-0.65 percentage points) and recreation, education and reading (-0.5 percentage points). Statistics Canada noted that at national level the headline CPI growth rate would be the same using the previous weights. For full details on the weight update, see An Analysis of the 2022 Consumer Price Index Basket Update, Based on 2021 Expenditures.
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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