June 07, 2019LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - MAY 2019 Nova Scotia's seasonally adjusted employment increased by 4,500 in May, rising to a new high of 468,900. Employment is 14,600 higher than it was last May.
Nova Scotia’s May employment increase more than offset the decline reported in April. Nova Scotia’s employment increased in nine of the past 12 months. Nova Scotia’s labour force also increased by 2,800 in May, rising to 501,600. With a larger employment increase than labour force increase, unemployment decreased by 1,600 persons and the unemployment rate was down 0.4 percentage points to 6.5 per cent in May.
In May, full-time employment increased 3,900 while part-time employment was up 500. Note: Changes in part-time and full-time employment can include the net impacts of changing hours of work within the same position.
Compared with May 2018, the labour force has increased by 11,300 while employment was up 14,600. The year-over-year increase in employment includes a rise of 6,700 in full time employment and an increase of 7,700 in part time employment. The unemployment rate was down 0.8 percentage points compared to May 2018.
Comparing the first five months of 2019 with the same months in 2018, the labour force grew by 7,000 (+1.4%) while employment was up by 11,300 (+2.5%). This pushed the year-to-date average unemployment rate down from 7.5 per cent Jan-May 2018 to 6.6 per cent in Jan-May 2019.
Age Cohorts
In May 2019, the monthly unemployment rate for the 15-24 age cohort decreased 2.8 percentage points to 11.1 per cent. The unemployment rate for age 15-24 is at its lowest rate since July 2008. The unemployment rate for the 25-54 year old age cohort declined 0.3 percentage points to 5.1 per cent, and for those aged 55 years and older, the unemployment rate increased 1.0 percentage points to 7.5 per cent.
Year-to-Date
Comparing the first five months of 2019 to the same period in 2018, the youth cohort (aged 15-24) saw a decrease in population (-200) but increases of 4,000 in labour force and 6,100 in employment. With the number of unemployed declining as a proportion of the labour force, the unemployment rate for 15-24-year olds decreased 3.8 percentage points to 13.1 per cent in the first five months of 2019.
Within the 25-54 age cohort, the population in January-May 2019 was 1,200 higher than it was in the same period of 2018. Employment among core aged workers rose by 1,500 and labour force dropped by 300. Unemployment in this age cohort dropped by 1,800, and as a result, the unemployment rate declined by 0.6 percentage points over last year to 5.3 per cent in Jan-May 2019.
In year to date terms, older workers (55+) reported a population increase of 6,400 in January to May 2019. The labour force for older workers was up 3,300 and employment increased by 3,500. Employment gains outpaced the rise in labour supply, reducing unemployment by 300 and decreasing the year to date unemployment rate from 6.4 per cent in Jan-May 2018 to 5.9 per cent in Jan-May 2019.
Sectors – Year to Date
Looking at the results by class of worker for the first five months of 2019, employment increases for the private sector (+7,400) and for the public sector (+5,700) offset self-employment declines (-1,900). In Nova Scotia, there was an average of 290,500 private sector employees, 117,100 public sector employees, and 58,700 self-employed for the first five months of 2019.
Among goods-producing sectors, the first five months of 2019 saw employment growth concentrated in forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying and oil and gas (+2,000) as well as increases in agriculture (+800), manufacturing (+700), and construction (+300). There were offsetting employment losses in utilities (-400).
Services-producing employment increased by 7,800 compared to the first five months of 2018. The largest increases come from wholesale/retail trade, health care, and information, culture and recreation. The largest declines came from finance/insurance, and business, building, and other support services.
Regions – Year-to-Date (unadjusted 3-month moving average)
The Cape Breton region showed an increase in employment (700) with labour force increasing by 1,200, and an increase in unemployment (500). This put upward pressure on the unemployment rate, which increased from 15.0 per cent in January-May 2018 to 15.6 per cent in January-May 2019.
For the North Shore region, the labour force declined by 1,800 and employment was unchanged. With labour force falling and no change in employment, the number of unemployed declined by 1,900. The unemploymrnet rate declined 2.4 percentage point drop from 9.6 per cent to 7.3 per cent.
The Annapolis Valley reported an increase of 400 in employment along with a decline of 600 for the labour force. Unemployment dropped by 1,000, and the net result was drop in the average unemployment rate by 1.6 percentage points to 7.2 per cent.
The Southern region saw an increase of 3,900 in employment along with an increase of 3,700 in the labour force. With unemployment declining by 200 over this period, the unemployment rate was down 0.8 percentage points to 7.3 per cent so far in 2019.
Halifax experienced an increase in employment of 6,100 along with an increase in the labour force of 3,100. With unemployment declining by 3,000, there was a drop in the unemployment rate of 1.3 percentage points to 5.1 per cent in Halifax.
Provincial Comparisons
The Nova Scotia unemployment rate was 6.5 per cent in May 2019, declining 0.8 percentage points from a year ago. The Canadian unemployment rate was 5.4 per cent, down 0.5 percentage points from one year ago. Canada's unemployment rate has reached a new record low since the start of the monthly Labour Force Survey in 1976.
All provinces, except Alberta, report lower unemployment rates compared to May 2018. The lowest unemployment rate among the provinces this month was in British Columbia (4.3 per cent) while the highest was in Newfoundland and Labrador at 12.4 per cent.
Employment across the country was up in all provinces in year to date terms. The largest gains in percentage terms was seen in British Columbia (3.2%),Newfoundland and Labrador (2.8%) and Ontario (2.7%). Nationally, employment was up 2.1 per cent.
National Comparisons: Cities (Monthly)
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in May 2019 was 5.2 per cent (3 month moving average). Quebec City (2.8 per cent) had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs, while the highest was in St. John’s (8.0 per cent).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for the Halifax CMA was 64.4 per cent, up 0.5 percentage points compared to last month. St. Catherines-Niagara and London had the lowest employment rate (54.8 per cent), while Calgary and Guelph had the highest (69.0 per cent).
Halifax’s employment (3 month moving average) for May 2019 was up 0.9 per cent compared to the April 2019 result. The largest gain among CMAs was in Saguenay where employment rose by 3.0 per cent.
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
With the January 2019 Labour Force Survey release, Statistics Canada has changed the processing systems that is used to impute data of incomplete records of the survey. Statistics Canada notes that for most LFS estimates the difference from the new system will be small, but some areas could be impacted such as part-time employment and employment by firm size. The transition is being monitored and historical revisions of series maybe made in the future. For more details, see Transition of Labour Force Survey Data Processing to the Social Survey Processing Environment (SSPE)