The shift in the age structure of the population is as notable as the shift in the sex structure. In 1995 23.7% of the population was under 18 years, versus 36.6% in 1971 and this proportion could drop below 17% within the next 25 years. The 18 to 24 age group increased its share of the total population between 1971 and 1986 but dropped from 13.0% of the total population in 1986 to 10.0% in 1995. A modest drop to 9.3% is expected by 2021.
The young working population, aged 25 to 44 years, expanded notably between 1971 and 1995, from 22.6% to 32.5% of the total population. Their numbers will decline by the year 2021 and 25 to 44 year olds will represent less than 25% of the total provincial population in that year. The middle age and older worker group (45 to 64 years) increased from 18.9% to 21.1% of the total population between 1971 and 1995 and will exhibit notable growth in the next 25 years, to comprise 29.4% of the population by the year 2021.
The population 65 years of age and over comprises larger proportion of the total Nova Scotia population than in most other provinces. Between 1971 and 1995 the proportion of the population that are 65+ grew from 9.1% to 12.7%. Within the next twenty-five years this proportion could exceed 20%. This would represent an increase in numbers of those 65+ of more than 66%, as compared to a 63% growth in the past 25 years. While the growth percentages are similar, the absolute increase in numbers is more notable -a growth of 46,000 in the past 25 years versus 79,000 in the next 25 years. Within this group the largest percentage gain will be amongst those 85+ years of age, with the numbers more than doubling, to 26,000 by 2021.
In 1971 the median age of the Nova Scotia population was 25.4 years. By 1995 this increased to 35.1 years and, by the year 2021, it will exceed 45 years and could approach 50 years.
A recent report by Statistics Canada (Growing Old in Canada -Cat. 96-321) said that "most of Nova Scotia, Cape Breton and the Gaspe Peninsula will have census divisions where, by 2011, over 18% of the population is projected to be aged 65 and over." This report also projected that by the year 2011 there would be almost 9,000 persons in Nova Scotia living in institutions, a further 21,200 with severe disabilities and an additional 28,200 with moderate disabilities. These numbers represent growth rates of approximately 60%, 45% and 38%, respectively, over the 1991 levels. This Canadian study concluded that "if an effective policy of deinstitutionalization is in place, or if the number of institutional spaces grows more slowly than the elderly population, then the increased number of elderly with severe and multiple disabilities living in the community will put even more pressure on them and on their families, friends and communities to support them. ....The question we must face today is whether the public policies adopted now will create equality of services or service-rich and service-poor elderly and communities in the future."