The first difference noted was the much lower overall historical population growth rate in Nova Scotia -14.9% versus 27.5% for Canada in the 1971 to 1991 period. This lower growth is expected to continue (7.7% for N.S. between 1991 and 2021 versus 37.6% for Canada) and the provincial population will likely begin to decline after the year 2025.
Trends in the three components of population change (births, deaths and net migration) lead to these differences between Nova Scotia and Canada. The Nova Scotia birth rate (per 1,000 population) was 11.8 in 1995 as compared to the national rate of 12.9. Only New Brunswick was lower at 11.5. The Nova Scotia death rate of 8.7 (per 1,000 population) compared to the national rate of 7.2 and was the highest of any province. The rate of natural increase of 3.1 (per 1,000 population) was thus the lowest in the country and well below the national rate of 5.7.
In the area of migration, the province has experienced only sporadic net in-migration over the past two decades and has lost over 5,000 to other provinces in the past two years. Foreign migration has been the only positive trend in population growth, now adding a net of approximately 3,000 per year to the province. Even this growth, however, is not in line with the national trend. Since July 1991 the Canadian population increased by 3.8% due to net foreign migration while only 1.6% growth was experienced in Nova Scotia due to net foreign migration.
Slow population growth and net emigration in specific age groups has resulted in a slightly less favorable age structure in the province. The mean age of 36.6 years for the Nova Scotia population, in July 1995, was above the Canada average of 36.1 years and was exceeded only by Quebec's 36.7 years. The age group under 18 is relatively smaller in Nova Scotia than Canada while the 18 to 24 age group is relatively larger. Net out-migration of those in their twenties, however, has left a smaller group of 25 to 44 year olds in Nova Scotia. Within the senior ages those 65 to 74 years in Nova Scotia account for only 6.9% of the population versus 7.0% for Canada. The 75 and over group, however, is very large in Nova Scotia, at 5.8% of the total population versus 5.0% nationally. It should be noted that the proportion in the 75+ group in Nova Scotia is exceeded in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island.
In June 1991 only 7.5% of the Nova Scotia population 5+ years of age had not lived within the province in June 1986. While the national figure of 7.3% was lower than the Nova Scotia figure, the national figure was heavily weighted by Quebec's 3.5%. Large migratory populations were evident in British Columbia (12.9%), Alberta (10.7%) and Ontario (8.3%). At the time of the June 1991 Census almost 79% of the residents of our province were born in Nova Scotia while the national average was only 69.3% and this was supported by an 85.7% rate in Quebec.
The growth and age structure of the province of Nova Scotia, as compared to the Canada average, can thus be summed up as one of slow growth, unfavorable age structure and not characterized by historical levels of in-migration.
A combination of factors, including the age structure of the population and the structure of the goods producing sectors within the province, has resulted in Nova Scotia having the highest reported disability rate in the country -21.3% for the overall population in 1991 versus a national rate of 15.5%. The Nova Scotia disability rate for those 65+ years was 58.8% versus 46.3% for Canada. The level of disability in Nova Scotia is further manifested by the fact that 2.5% of the total Nova Scotia population in 1996 were receiving CPP disability benefits versus 1.0% of the Canadian population. New Brunswick was the second highest with a rate of only 1.6%.
The age structure of the Nova Scotia population, the levels of disability, the lower labour force participation rate (59.8% versus 64.8% for Canada in 1995) and higher unemployment rate (12.1% versus 9.5% for Canada in 1995) has resulted in an overall income dependency ratio of 37.6% as compared to a national rate of 26.9% in 1994. The Nova Scotia rate remains below Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island but moved above New Brunswick in 1994. of more note than the interprovincial comparison is the difference between counties within Nova Scotia as the dependency ratios ranged from a high of 76.3% in Victoria County to a low of 25.7% in Halifax County. The economic dependency ratio is a comparison of transfer payments and employment income for a given area. For example, in 1994, in Nova Scotia there were $37.56 of transfer payments reported on tax returns for every $100.00 of employment income.