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May 20, 2025ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR APRIL 2025 Please note that the removal of the consumer carbon price on April 1, 2025 has affected energy prices, with all provinces (except Québec) also removing provincial consumer carbon prices. While other factors such as global commodity prices will continue to affect Canadian energy prices, it is expected that this policy change will be reflected in month-over-month inflation rates for April 2025 and year-over-year rates until March 2026.
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated to 1.3% year-over-year in April 2025, down from 2.3% year-over-year in March. Statistics Canada noted that Nova Scotia’s HST decrease to 14% contributed to slower year-over-year price growth in April.
Nationally, consumer prices decelerated to 1.7% year-over-year growth in April 2025, down from 2.3% in March. Inflation was highest in Québec and slowest in New Brunswick.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 1.3% year-over-year inflation were: rent, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, mortgage interest cost, homeowners' replacement cost, and purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: gasoline, telephone services, fuel oil and other fuels, inter-city transportation, and personal care supplies and equipment.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was down 0.5% from March 2025 to April 2025. National prices were down 0.1% on average, with price declines reported in all provinces except Québec, and British Columbia with no change. Prince Edward Island, Alberta, and Nova Scotia reported the largest monthly decline in prices.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: travel tours, financial services, sugar and confectionery, electricity, and furniture. Major downward contributors were: gasoline, fuel oil and other fuels, recreational equipment and services (excluding recreational vehicles), purchase and operation of recreational vehicles, and personal care supplies and equipment.
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. The removal of the consumer carbon tax, as well as lower crude oil prices, contributed to lower energy prices in April. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 11.6% from April 2024 to April 2025. Year-over-year energy prices were down 12.7% nationally with all ten provinces reporting decreasing energy prices. Québec reported the slowest year-over-year decrease in energy prices, while Alberta reported the fastest decline.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices fell 7.0% from March 2025 to April 2025. National energy prices were down 7.9% with every province except Québec reporting lower prices compared to the previous month. Alberta reported the fastest monthly decrease in energy prices.
In April 2025, gasoline prices were down 21.1% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia. All ten provinces reported lower gasoline prices, with the steepest fall in New Brunswick. Manitoba saw the slowest year-over-year decrease in gasoline prices.
Gasoline prices were down 11.3% from March to April in Nova Scotia, and were down 10.2% nationally. All provinces reported lower monthly gasoline prices with the largest decrease in Manitoba, while Québec saw the slowest decrease.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were down 6.1% in April 2025 compared with April 2024. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels index decreased 6.0% compared to April 2024, with all reporting provinces observing decreases. British Columbia reported the steepest drop in fuel oil prices while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were down 8.4%. National fuel oil prices were down 8.4% from March to April, with all provinces reporting decreases. British Columbia reported the steepest monthly fuel oil price decrease.
Food prices increased 3.3% in Nova Scotia year-over-year. National food prices grew 3.8% in April 2025. Food prices were up in every province, led by Saskatchewan. Prince Edward Island reported the lowest food price inflation.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices increased 0.5% from March to April. National food prices were up 0.4% from March to April. All provinces except Prince Edward Island reported higher prices on a monthly basis, with the largest monthly food price increase in Saskatchewan.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 2.6% from April 2024 to April 2025. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.6% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Alberta reported the fastest growth while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest growth in inflation excluding food and energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were unchanged from March to April, the only province not reporting price increases. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.5%, with increases in nine of ten provinces. Manitoba saw the fastest monthly increase in prices for all items excluding food and energy.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 4.4% in Nova Scotia in April 2025. National shelter prices were up 3.4% with increases in all provinces. Québec reported the largest year-over-year increase in shelter prices while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.
Monthly shelter costs were down 0.3% in Nova Scotia from March to April. Nationally, shelter costs were down 0.1% with decreases in six provinces, and no change in Saskatchewan. The largest monthly decline in shelter prices was in Alberta, while the largest increase was in New Brunswick.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for beef, coffee/tea, and eggs. The largest year-over-year price declines were for fats/oils, pork, and cheese.
In detailed shelter cost components, fuel oil/other fuels and home maintenance/repairs saw the only year-over-year price declines. Prices for all other shelter cost components were up year-over-year, led by water and rent.
Household operations/furnishings costs were up 0.6% overall. The largest year-over-year price increase was for furniture and financial services, while prices fell the most for telephones, appliances, and utensils/tableware/cookware.
Clothing and footwear prices were down 1.6% year-over-year in April with the fastest price increases in men's clothing, while the largest price declines were in footwear and women's clothing.
Health and personal care costs were up 1.0% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components except non-prescribed medicine and personal care supplies. Health care and personal care services reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were down 4.1% year-over-year in April. Vehicle insurance had the largest increase while gasoline had the largest decline, with no change in vehicle registration prices.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 2.0% from April 2024 to April 2025 with the only decline in home entertainment equipment/services, and the fastest increase for other culture/recreation.
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 1.1% year-over-year, with increases in all categories except liquor from stores, with the fastest increase in beer from stores.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%. In April 2025, Nova Scotia's inflation excluding food and energy remained at 2.6% year-over-year.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation may also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in April 2025 were:
- CPI-common: 2.5% (up from 2.3% the previous month)
- CPI-median: 3.2% (up from 2.8% the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 3.1% (up from 2.9% the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 2.5% (up from 2.2% in the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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