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June 24, 2025ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR MAY 2025 Please note that the removal of the consumer carbon price on April 1, 2025 has affected energy prices, with all provinces (except Québec) also removing provincial consumer carbon prices. While other factors such as global commodity prices will continue to affect Canadian energy prices, it is expected that this policy change will be reflected in year-over-year rates until March 2026.
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 1.3% year-over-year in May 2025, the same pace as the previous month.
Nationally, consumer prices grew 1.7% year-over-year growth in May 2025, the same pace as April inflation. Inflation was highest in British Columbia and slowest in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 1.3% year-over-year inflation were: rent, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, mortgage interest cost, homeowners' replacement cost, and financial services.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: gasoline, inter-city transportation, fuel oil and other fuels, purchase and operation of recreational vehicles, and personal care supplies and equipment.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was up 0.2% from April 2025 to May 2025. National prices were up 0.6% on average, with price gains reported in all provinces. British Columbia reported the highest monthly inflation rate, while Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan had the lowest.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: financial services, telephone services, traveller accommodation, gasoline, and fresh vegetables. Major downward contributors were: fuel oil and other fuels, purchase and operation of recreational vehicles, women’s clothing, furniture, and sugar and confectionery.
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. The removal of the consumer carbon tax contributed to lower energy prices in May. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 11.9% from May 2024 to May 2025. Year-over-year energy prices were down 11.0% nationally with all provinces reporting decreasing energy prices. Québec reported the slowest year-over-year decrease in energy prices, while Alberta reported the fastest decline.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices fell 0.5% from April 2025 to May 2025. National energy prices were up 0.9% with five provinces reporting higher prices compared to the previous month. British Columbia reported the fastest monthly increase in energy prices, while Saskatchewan reported the fastest decline.
In May 2025, gasoline prices were down 20.9% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia, the fastest decline among provinces. All provinces reported lower gasoline prices. Manitoba saw the slowest year-over-year decrease in gasoline prices.
Gasoline prices were up 1.3% from April to May in Nova Scotia and were up 1.9% nationally. All provinces reported higher monthly gasoline prices except Saskatchewan, with the largest increase in British Columbia.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were down 7.8% in May 2025 compared with May 2024. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels index decreased 8.4% compared to May 2024, with all reporting provinces observing decreases. British Columbia reported the steepest drop in fuel oil prices while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were down 6.6%. National fuel oil prices were down 6.5% from April to May, with all provinces reporting decreases. Québec reported the steepest monthly fuel oil price decrease.
Food prices increased 2.7% in Nova Scotia year-over-year, the lowest food price inflation among provinces. National food prices grew 3.4% in May 2025. Food prices were up in every province, led by New Brunswick, Ontario, and Newfoundland and Labrador.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices increased 0.2% from April to May. National food prices were up 0.5% from April to May. All provinces reported higher prices on a monthly basis, with the largest monthly food price increase in New Brunswick and the slowest increase in British Columbia.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 2.8% from May 2024 to May 2025. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.6% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. British Columbia reported the fastest growth while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest growth in inflation excluding food and energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.4% from April to May. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.6%, with increases in all provinces. Ontario and British Columbia saw the fastest monthly increase in prices for all items excluding food and energy, while Saskatchewan and Québec reported the slowest.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 4.9% in Nova Scotia in May 2025, the fastest increase among provinces. National shelter prices were up 3.0% with increases in all provinces. Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.
Monthly shelter costs were down 0.3% in Nova Scotia from April to May, the largest monthly decline among provinces. Nationally, shelter costs were unchanged with increases in six provinces, and no change in British Columbia. The largest increase was in Alberta.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for beef, coffee/tea, and preserved or fresh vegetables. The largest year-over-year price declines were for fats/oils and sugar/confectionary.
In detailed shelter cost components, fuel oil/other fuels and home maintenance/repairs saw the only year-over-year price declines. Prices for all other shelter cost components were up year-over-year, led by water and rent.
Household operations/furnishings costs were up 2.0% overall. The largest year-over-year price increase was for financial services and paper/plastic/aluminium products, while prices fell the most for appliances, telephones, and utensils/tableware/cookware.
Clothing and footwear prices were up 0.1% year-over-year in May with the fastest price increases in clothing accessories/jewellery and children’s clothing, while the only price declines were in footwear and women's clothing.
Health and personal care costs were up 0.9% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components except non-prescribed medicine and personal care supplies. Health care and personal care services reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were down 4.2% year-over-year in May. Vehicle insurance had the largest increase while gasoline had the largest decline, with no change in vehicle registration prices.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 0.4% from May 2024 to May 2025 with the fastest increase for travel services/accommodations, and the fastest decline in purchase/operation of recreational vehicles.
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 0.4% year-over-year, with increases in all categories except cigarettes and alcohol from licensed establishments, with the fastest increase in beer from stores.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%. In May 2025, Nova Scotia's inflation excluding food and energy was 2.8% year-over-year.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation may also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in May 2025 were:
- CPI-common: 2.6% (up from 2.5% the previous month)
- CPI-median: 3.0% (down from 3.1% the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 3.0% (down from 3.1% the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 2.5% (unchanged from the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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