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July 15, 2025ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR JUNE 2025 Please note that the removal of the consumer carbon price on April 1, 2025 has affected energy prices, with all provinces (except Québec) also removing provincial consumer carbon prices. While other factors such as global commodity prices will continue to affect Canadian energy prices, it is expected that this policy change will be reflected in year-over-year rates until March 2026.
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 1.6% year-over-year in June 2025, a 0.3 percentage point acceleration over the previous month.
Nationally, consumer prices grew 1.9% year-over-year in June 2025, 0.2 percentage points faster than the May inflation rate. Inflation was highest in Manitoba and Québec, and slowest in Prince Edward Island.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 1.6% year-over-year inflation were: rent, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, mortgage interest cost, purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles, and homeowners' replacement cost.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: gasoline, inter-city transportation, fuel oil and other fuels, telephone services, and purchase and operation of recreational vehicles.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was up 0.5% from May 2025 to June 2025. National prices were up 0.1% on average, with price gains reported in all provinces except British Columbia. Newfoundland and Labrador reported the highest monthly inflation rate, followed by Nova Scotia.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: traveller accommodation, personal care supplies and equipment, women's clothing, inter-city transportation, and food purchased from restaurants. Major downward contributors were: rent, fresh vegetables, household appliances, telephone services, and children's clothing.
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 9.6% from June 2024 to June 2025. Year-over-year energy prices were down 9.5% nationally with all provinces reporting decreasing energy prices. Québec reported the slowest year-over-year decrease in energy prices, while Alberta reported the fastest decline.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices fell 0.3% from May 2025 to June 2025. National energy prices were down 0.4% with six provinces reporting lower prices compared to the previous month. Newfoundland and Labrador reported the fastest monthly increase in energy prices, while British Columbia reported the fastest decline.
In June 2025, gasoline prices were down 17.4% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia, the fastest decline among provinces. All provinces reported lower gasoline prices, with Manitoba having the slowest year-over-year decrease.
Gasoline prices were down 0.4% from May to June in Nova Scotia and down 0.7% nationally. Eight provinces reported monthly declines in gasoline prices, led by British Columbia. Newfoundland and Labrador saw the largest increase in gasoline prices.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were down 7.4% in June 2025 compared with June 2024. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels index decreased 6.1% compared to June 2024, with all reporting provinces observing decreases. Saskatchewan reported the steepest drop in fuel oil prices while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest decline.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were down 0.9%. National fuel oil prices were up 0.4% from May to June. Saskatchewan reported the steepest monthly fuel oil price decrease, while Newfoundland and Labrador saw the largest increase.
Food prices increased 2.1% in Nova Scotia year-over-year, the lowest food price inflation among provinces. National food prices grew 2.9% in June 2025. Food prices were up in every province, led by Newfoundland and Labrador.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices were unchanged from May to June. National food prices were up 0.1% from May to June. The largest monthly food price increase was in Newfoundland and Labrador, and the steepest decline was in Manitoba and Québec.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 3.0% from June 2024 to June 2025, the highest among provinces. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.6% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest growth in inflation excluding food and energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.7% from May to June, the fastest increase among provinces. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.1%, with increases in all provinces except British Columbia. Ontario's prices for all items excluding food and energy were unchanged.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 4.3% in Nova Scotia in June 2025. National shelter prices were up 2.9% with increases in all provinces. Québec had the largest increase in shelter prices, while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.
Monthly shelter costs were up 0.1% in Nova Scotia from May to June. Nationally, shelter costs were up 0.2%, with increases in every province except Prince Edward Island. The largest monthly increase was in Québec and Manitoba.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for coffee/tea, beef, pork and chicken. The largest year-over-year price declines were for fats/oils and sugar/confectionary.
In detailed shelter cost components, fuel oil/other fuels and home maintenance/repairs saw the only year-over-year price declines. Prices for all other shelter cost components were up year-over-year, led by water and rent.
Household operations/furnishings costs were up 1.6% overall. The largest year-over-year price increases were for textiles and financial services, while prices fell the most for appliances, telephones, and cleaning products.
Clothing and footwear prices were up 1.9% year-over-year in June with the fastest price increases in clothing accessories/jewellery and children’s clothing, while the only price declines were in footwear and men's clothing.
Health and personal care costs were up 2.6% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components except non-prescribed medicine. Health care and personal care services reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were down 2.5% year-over-year in June. Vehicle insurance had the largest increase while gasoline had the largest decline, with no change in vehicle registration prices.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 1.5% from June 2024 to June 2025 with the fastest increase for travel services/accommodations, and the fastest decline in purchase/operation of recreational vehicles.
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 0.7% year-over-year, with increases in all categories except cigarettes and alcohol from licensed establishments, with the fastest increase in beer from stores.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%. In June 2025, Nova Scotia's inflation excluding food and energy was 3.0% year-over-year, the fastest rate since December 2023.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation June also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in June 2025 were:
- CPI-common: 2.6% (unchanged from the previous month)
- CPI-median: 3.1% (up from 3.0% the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 3.0% (unchanged from the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 2.7% (up 0.2% from the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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