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April 20, 2026ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR MARCH 2026 Note that the removal of the consumer carbon price on April 1, 2025 has affected energy prices, with all provinces (except Québec) also removing provincial consumer carbon prices. This policy change will is reflected in year-over-year rates in March 2026. This month, energy prices were also impacted by the conflict in the Middle East.
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 3.0% year-over-year in March 2026, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Nationally, consumer prices grew 2.4% year-over-year in March 2026, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Inflation was fastest in Nova Scotia and Manitoba, and slowest in Ontario.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 3.0% year-over-year inflation were: rent, fuel oil and other fuels, gasoline, travel tours, and homeowners' home and mortgage insurance.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: recreational equipment and services (excluding recreational vehicles), pet food and supplies, men's clothing, furniture, and household appliances.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was up 1.9% from February 2026 to March 2026. National prices were up 0.9% on average. The fastest rate of monthly increase was in Nova Scotia, with the slowest in Québec.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: gasoline, fuel oil and other fuels, rent, travel tours, and traveller accommodations. Major downward contributors were: telephone services, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, men's clothing, reading material (excluding textbooks), and cereal products (excluding baby food).
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. Nova Scotia's energy prices were up 6.3% from March 2025 to March 2026. Year-over-year energy prices were up 3.9% nationally with eight provinces reporting increasing energy prices (fastest: Prince Edward Island). Alberta reported the largest year-over-year decline in energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices were up 13.8% from February 2026 to March 2026. National energy prices were up 13.1% with every province reporting higher prices compared to the previous month, led by Prince Edward Island.
In March 2026, gasoline prices were up 3.4% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia, less than the national average increase of 5.9%. All provinces reported increases, with Québec reporting largest increase in gas prices year-over-year, and Saskatchewan the slowest.
Gasoline prices were up 19.7% from February to March in Nova Scotia. Nationally gasoline prices were up 21.2% with all provinces reporting higher prices, led by Alberta. British Columbia reported the slowest monthly increase in gasoline prices.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were up 22.9% in March 2026 compared with March 2025. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels price index increased 26.1% compared to March 2025 with all provinces, led by New Brunswick, reporting increases.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were up 20.0% compared to February 2026. National fuel oil prices were up 21.5% from February to March, with increases in every province, led by Prince Edward Island.
Food prices increased 3.4% in Nova Scotia year-over-year, below national average food price inflation of 4.0% in March 2026. Food prices were up in every province, led by Manitoba.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices rose 0.6% from February to March. National food prices were up 0.3% with every province except British Columbia reporting growth. Nova Scotia and Manitoba reported the fastest monthly growth in food prices.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 2.4% from March 2025 to March 2026. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 1.9% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Manitoba reported the fastest increase in inflation excluding food and energy prices, while Ontario and Prince Edward Island reported the slowest growth.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.6% from February to March, the fastest increase among provinces. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.1% with eight provinces reporting increases. The only decline in prices for all items excluding food and energy was in Manitoba, while Québec reported no change.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 5.2% in Nova Scotia in March 2026. National shelter prices were up 1.7% with increases in all provinces. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia had the fastest increase in shelter prices, while Ontario reported the slowest increase.
Monthly shelter costs were up 2.2% in Nova Scotia from February to March. Nationally, shelter costs were up 0.3% as every province except Québec reported growth, with Prince Edward Island reporting the fastest monthly increase.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for coffee/tea, pork and chicken. The largest year-over-year price declines were for fats and oils as well as fresh fruits.
In detailed shelter cost components, the fastest year-over-year growth was for reported for fuel oil and other fuels, as well as water and home/mortgage insurance.
Household operations/furnishings costs were down 0.2% overall. The largest year-over-year price increase was for textiles, while prices fell the most for utensils/tableware/ cookware.
Clothing and footwear prices were up 2.0% year-over-year in March as all sub-components grew except for clothing materials/services and men's clothing, with the fastest price growth in clothing accessories/jewellery and children's clothing.
Health and personal care costs were up 3.7% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components. Personal care services and supplies reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were up 2.3% year-over-year in March due in part to an increase in gasoline prices and vehicle insurance costs. The only decrease was in taxis/other local transportation. City bus and vehicle registration costs were unchanged.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 2.9% from March 2025 to March 2026 with the fastest increase for travel services and accommodation, and the largest decline in home entertainment equipment/services.
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were down 0.5% year-over-year on large decrease in the price of cannabis. The only increase was in beer from stores.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%. After decelerating in 2024, Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy rose in 2025 and has remained above 2%.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation August also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023. Core measures of inflation began to rise toward the end of 2024.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in March 2026 were:
- CPI-common: 2.6% (up from 2.4% from the previous month)
- CPI-median: 2.3% (unchanged from 2.3% the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 2.2% (down from 2.3% the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 2.5% (up from 2.3% the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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