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February 18, 2025ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR JANUARY 2025 Please note that a temporary GST/HST break is in effect from December 14, 2024 to February 15, 2025, which will affect consumer prices reflected in provincial and national statistics. Major CPI components impacted by the tax break are food, recreation, and clothing and footwear, with approximately 10% of the all-item CPI basket affected by the exemption. Provinces with harmonized sales taxes (Ontario, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island) will be more impacted than other provinces.
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 1.3% year-over-year in January 2025, up from 0.9% year-over-year in December.
Nova Scotia's inflation has been slowing after peaking at 9.3% in June 2022, though there have been periods of rising inflation, particularly due to higher energy prices.
Nationally, consumer prices accelerated to 1.9% year-over-year growth in January 2025, up from 1.8% in December. Inflation was highest in Manitoba and slowest in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 1.3% year-over-year inflation were: rent, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, mortgage interest cost, gasoline, and purchase and operation of recreational vehicles.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: food purchased from restaurants, recreational equipment and services(excluding recreational vehicles), inter-city transportation, women's clothing, and sugar and confectionary.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was up 0.3% from December 2024 to January 2025. National prices were up 0.1% on average, with increases reported in seven provinces. Manitoba reported the fastest monthly increase in prices, while New Brunswick reported the steepest decline.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: gasoline, fuel oil and other fuels, telephone services, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, and purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles. Major downward contributors were: inter-city transportation, food purchased from restaurants, travel tours, beer purchased from stores, and non-prescribed medicines.
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices were up 2.9% from January 2024 to January 2025. Year-over-year energy prices were up 5.3% nationally with all provinces reporting increasing energy prices. Manitoba reported the fastest year-over-year increase in energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices rose 5.1% from December 2024 to January 2025. National energy prices were up 3.2% with every province except New Brunswick reporting higher prices compared to the previous month. Manitoba reported the largest monthly increases in energy prices.
Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. In January 2025, gasoline prices were up 5.4% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia. All provinces reported higher gasoline prices, with the steepest gain in Manitoba and the slowest increase in Québec.
Gasoline prices were up 5.6% from December to January in Nova Scotia, and were up 4.0% nationally. All provinces reported higher monthly gasoline prices with the largest increases in Manitoba, and the slowest monthly increase in Ontario.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were down 1.7% in January 2025 compared with January 2024. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels index increased 3.4% compared to January 2024. New Brunswick reported the steepest drop in fuel oil prices while Newfoundland and Labrador and Ontario reported the fastest increase.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were up 8.7%. National fuel oil prices were up 9.1% from December 2024 to January 2025, with all provinces reporting increases. Prince Edward Island reported the steepest monthly fuel oil price increase, while New Brunswick reported the slowest increase.
Food prices declined 2.9% in Nova Scotia (January 2025 vs January 2024). National food prices decreased 0.6% in January 2025. Food prices were down in five of the ten provinces. Manitoba and Saskatchewan reported the highest food price inflation while Prince Edward Island reported the fastest decline.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices declined 1.5% from December to January. National food prices were down 0.5% from December to January. Eight provinces reported lower prices on a monthly basis, with the largest monthly food price increase in British Columbia, and the largest decline in New Brunswick.
The five HST provinces (Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Ontario) saw faster declines in food prices than the other five provinces in the wake of the temporary GST/HST break in both monthly and year-over-year terms.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 2.1% from January 2024 to January 2025. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.2% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Alberta reported the fastest growth while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest growth in inflation excluding food and energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.1% from December 2024 to January 2025. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were down 0.1%, with increases in seven provinces. British Columbia reported the fastest price decline in all items excluding food and energy, while Manitoba reported the largest monthly increase.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 3.8% in Nova Scotia in January 2025. National shelter prices were up 4.5% with increases in all provinces. Québec reported the largest year-over-year increase in shelter prices while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.
Monthly shelter costs were up 0.9% in Nova Scotia from December 2024 to January 2025. Nationally, shelter costs were up 0.3% with increases in all provinces except New Brunswick, with no change in Alberta. The fastest monthly shelter price increases were in Prince Edward Island.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for preserved vegetables, fresh vegetables, and eggs. The largest year-over-year price declines were for sugar and confectionary, food from restaurants, and fish/seafood.
In detailed shelter cost components, fuel oil reported the steepest year-over-year price decline, followed by home maintenance and repairs. Prices for all other shelter cost components were up year-over-year, led by water and rent.
Household operations/furnishings costs were up 1.3% overall. The largest year-over-year price increases were for financial services and internet access. Prices fell for textiles, cleaning products, telephones and furniture.
Clothing and footwear prices were down 3.6% year-over-year in January with declines in all sub-components except clothing materials and services.
Health and personal care costs were up 1.3% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components except personal care supplies and non-prescribed medicine. Health care and personal care services reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were up 3.3% year-over-year in January. Vehicle insurance had the largest increase while inter-city transportation had the largest decline.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 2.1% from January 2024 to January 2025 with the fastest decline in home entertainment equipment, services and the fastest increase for other culture and recreation.
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were down 0.6% year-over-year. Cigarettes had the largest increase, while wine and beer from stores (both eligible for the temporary gst/hst break ending February 15, 2025) saw the largest declines.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%. In January 2025, Nova Scotia's inflation excluding food and energy has slowed to 2.1% year-over-year.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation may also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in January 2025 were:
- CPI-common: 2.2% (up from 2.0% the previous month)
- CPI-median: 2.7% (up from 2.6% the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 2.7% (up from 2.5% the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 2.1% (up from 1.8% in the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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