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March 21, 2025MANITOBA BUDGET 2025-26 The Province of Manitoba brought out its provincial budget for 2025-26 on March 20, 2025.
After a forecast deficit of $1,239 million in 2024-25, the Province of Manitoba projects a deficit of $794 million in 2025-26. Manitoba's deficit is projected to contract to $327 million in 2026-27 and the Budget is expected to return to balance in 2027-28. Manitoba's Budget includes revenue contingency amounts of $100 million in 2024-25, $200 million in 2025-26 and $50 million each in 2026-27 and 2027-28.
For 2025-26, Manitoba's revenues are projected to grow by 8.1% while expenditures grow by 5.5%. In subsequent fiscal years, revenue growth slows to 3.3-3.5% while expenditure growth slows to 2.0-2.1%.
Due to the threat of US tariffs, the Manitoba Budget presents an alternate fiscal framework should the worst-case scenario of 25% tariffs and associated retaliatory measures be implemented. This scenario would result in a $1,420 per capita loss in income (-2.6%) while overall GDP could be cut by $3.6 billion or 3.8% and provincial revenues could be reduced by $559 million in 2025. In this scenario, a tariff response contingency of $500 million along with an increase in the revenue contingency from $200 million to $800 million would drive the province's deficit from $794 million to $1,894 million.
Measured as a share of GDP, the footprint of provincial government in Manitoba's economy amounts to 26.4% of GDP in 2025-26 . This is projected to shrink to 25.0% of GDP by 2026-27. (The Province of Manitoba did not provide a medium-term outlook for nominal GDP).
Manitoba's 2025-26 deficit amounts to 0.8% of provincial GDP estimated for 2025. In 2026-27, the deficit is projected to contract to 0.3% of GDP.
Manitoba's net debt is projected to rise to 36.9% of GDP for fiscal year 2025-26. This ratio is projected to rise to 37.1% of GDP in 2026-27 before falling to 36.8% of GDP in 2027-28.
Manitoba's 2025-26 Budget expenditures amount to $17,077 per capita (plus a revenue contingency of $132 per capita), funded by revenues of $16,685 per capita and a deficit of $525 per capita. Expenditures per capita are projected to rise by $160 in the following fiscal year while per capita revenues rise $371.
Manitoba's revenue and expenditure projections are each somewhat higher than the forecast from the 2024-25 Budget.
Manitoba's outlook for deficits is somewhat lower compared with the outlook presented in the 2024-25 fiscal plan, though the return to balance in 2027-28 is consistent with the plan from last year's Budget.
Manitoba's real GDP is projected to rise by 1.7% in each of the next two years while nominal GDP growth slows to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026. Manitoba's labour markets are projected to soften as population growth slows. The economic outlook for Manitoba is clouded by several risks, including tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, inflation/monetary policy and environmental events.
Key Measures and Initiatives
The Manitoba Budget anticipates that tariff response may be a key priority for the Provincial government in 2025-26. Beyond the response to tariffs, the 2025-26 Manitoba Budget focuses on: rebuilding health care, lowering costs, growing the economy, healthy families, safe communities and government operations. Key measures include:
Rebuilding health care
- $770 million in new funding for recruitment and retention of front line health care workers
- $40 million for frontline staff in senior care
- New and renovation emergency room and health care facilities (Victoria Hospital, Eriksdale Emergency Room, Children's Hospital Emergency Room, CancerCare Manitoba headquarters, Health Care Centre of Excellence in Winnipeg)
- Building three new personal care homes
- Adding Plan B to Manitoba's free Birth Control Program
- Investing in health care for women in menopause and perimenopause
Lowering costs
- Making gas tax relief permanent
- One year of free parks entry for Manitobans
- One-year freeze in Manitoba Hydro rates
- $30 million per year for the Universal School Food Program
- $12.4 million in increased supports for low-income households
- $100 increase to Homeowners Affordability Tax Credit
- Increased tax credits for renters and low income seniors
- Renewing the $300 rebate on home security systems
Growing the economy
- Capital investments in: water treatment, Hydro infrastructure, transportation, wind power and connection to Churchill
- Reducing the payroll tax
- Adding $4.5 million for travel marketing
- Creating a $10 million Business Security Rebate
- Building a new Gold Mine in Northern Manitoba
Healthier families
- Construction of 11 new schools over 3 years
- Building new housing units along with a navigation centre to move people from tents to supportive housing
- Allocating 4% of gas tax revenues to communities for rinks, playgrounds and community centres
Safe communities
- $76 million for public safety initiatives focused on drug trafficking and bail reform
- New funding model for municipalities
- $80 million towards 3 new water bombers
Government operations
- New health cards
- Buy Canadian policy for government contracts
- Improvements to the provincial nominee program
- Adding three cabinet offices in Western, Southern and Northern regions
Manitoba Budget 2025-26
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