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October 21, 2025ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR SEPTEMBER 2025 Please note that the removal of the consumer carbon price on April 1, 2025 has affected energy prices, with all provinces (except Québec) also removing provincial consumer carbon prices. While other factors such as global commodity prices will continue to affect Canadian energy prices, it is expected that this policy change will be reflected in year-over-year rates until March 2026.
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 2.7% year-over-year in September 2025, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.
Nationally, consumer prices grew 2.4% year-over-year in September 2025, 0.5 percentage points faster than the August inflation rate. Inflation was highest in Québec and slowest in Prince Edward Island.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 2.7% year-over-year inflation were: rent, traveller accommodation, mortgage interest cost, homeowners' replacement cost, and financial services.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: gasoline, inter-city transportation, women's clothing, purchase and operation of recreational vehicles, and recreational equipment and services (excluding RVs).
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was unchanged from August 2025 to September 2025. National prices were up 0.1% on average. There were price increases reported in four provinces (led by Québec), and declines in four provinces (led by Prince Edward Island) while prices in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick were unchanged month-over-month.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: gasoline, sugar and confectionary, traveller accommodation, recreational equipment and services (excluding RVs), and tuition fees. Major downward contributors were: inter-city transportation, women's clothing, rent, men's clothing, and clothing accessories, watches and jewellery.
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 1.1% from September 2024 to September 2025. Year-over-year energy prices were down 2.6% nationally with eight provinces reporting decreasing energy prices (fastest: Alberta). Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador reported the fastest year-over-year growth in energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices rose 0.6% from August 2025 to September 2025. National energy prices were up 1.1% with eight provinces reporting higher prices compared to the previous month. Québec reported the fastest monthly increase in energy prices, while Manitoba and Alberta reported the fastest declines.
In September 2025, gasoline prices were down 4.7% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia. Eight provinces reported lower gasoline prices, with Saskatchewan and Alberta seeing the fastest decline. Québec and Manitoba reported higher gas prices year-over-year.
Gasoline prices were up 1.0% from August to September in Nova Scotia and up 1.9% nationally. All provinces except Manitoba reported monthly increases in gasoline prices, led by Québec.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were up 0.8% in September 2025 compared with September 2024. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels price index increased 8.0% compared to September 2024, with six provinces reporting increases. Québec reported the largest increase in fuel oil prices while British Columbia reported the largest decline.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were up 0.1%. National fuel oil prices were up 0.6% from August to September, with increases observed in six of the nine reporting provinces. New Brunswick reported the fastest monthly fuel oil price increase, while Manitoba saw the fastest decline.
Food prices increased 4.1% in Nova Scotia year-over-year, above national average food price inflation of 3.8% in September 2025. Food prices were up in every province, led by Saskatchewan.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices grew 0.5% from August to September. National food prices were up 0.4% with the largest monthly food price increase in British Columbia. Québec reported the only monthly decline in the food price index.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 2.9% from September 2024 to September 2025. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.4% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Québec reported the fastest growth in inflation excluding food and energy prices while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest growth.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were down 0.2% from August to September. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were down 0.1%, with declines in all provinces except Québec and Manitoba. Prince Edward Island had the largest monthly decline in prices for all items excluding food and energy.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 4.7% in Nova Scotia in September 2025. National shelter prices were up 2.6% with increases in all provinces. Québec had the largest increase in shelter prices, while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.
Monthly shelter costs were up 0.1% in Nova Scotia from August to September. Nationally, shelter costs were up 0.1%, with increases in seven provinces. The largest monthly increase was in Québec, with the largest decline in British Columbia.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for coffee/tea, beef, and sugar/confectionary. The largest year-over-year price decline was for fats/oils.
In detailed shelter cost components, all components had price increases year-over-year with the fastest growth for water and rent.
Household operations/furnishings costs were up 2.0% overall. The largest year-over-year price increases were for financial services and furniture, while prices fell the most for cleaning products and internet access.
Clothing and footwear prices were down 0.9% year-over-year in September with the fastest price declines in women's clothing. There were increases for prices of clothing accessories/jewellery and children’s clothing.
Health and personal care costs were up 3.8% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components except non-prescribed medicine. Personal care services and supplies reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were up 0.1% year-over-year in September. The fastest increases were among taxi/local transportation, vehicle insurance, and city bus, while there were notable declines for inter-city transportation and gasoline.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 3.5% from September 2024 to September 2025 with the fastest increase for travel services/accommodations, and declines reported for recreational equipment/services (excluding RV's) and purchase/operation of recreational vehicles.
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were down 0.7% year-over-year, with an increase in prices for beer from stores offset by declines in all other categories, led by recreational cannabis.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation August also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023. Core measures of inflation have been rising since the end of 2024.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in September 2025 were:
- CPI-common: 2.7% (up from 2.5% the previous month)
- CPI-median: 3.2% (unchanged from the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 3.1% (up from 3.0% the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 2.8% (up from 2.6% in the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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