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November 17, 2025ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR OCTOBER 2025 Please note that the removal of the consumer carbon price on April 1, 2025 has affected energy prices, with all provinces (except Québec) also removing provincial consumer carbon prices. While other factors such as global commodity prices will continue to affect Canadian energy prices, it is expected that this policy change will be reflected in year-over-year rates until March 2026.
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 2.6% year-over-year in October 2025, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
Nationally, consumer prices grew 2.2% year-over-year in October 2025, 0.2 percentage points slower than the September inflation rate. Inflation was highest in Québec and slowest in Prince Edward Island.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 2.6% year-over-year inflation were: rent, purchase/leasing of passenger vehicles, mortgage interest cost, homeowners' replacement cost, and financial services.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: gasoline, inter-city transportation, women's clothing, furniture, and purchase and operation of recreational vehicles.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was up 0.1% from September 2025 to October 2025. National prices were down 0.2% on average. There were price increases reported in eight provinces (led by Manitoba), and a decline in Prince Edward Island, while prices in Newfoundland and Labrador were unchanged month-over-month.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: telephone services, paper/plastic/aluminum supplies, property tax and other special charges, travel tours, and purchase/leasing of passenger vehicles. Major downward contributors were: gasoline, traveller accommodation, fresh vegetables, other food preparations, and sugar/confectionery.
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 4.0% from October 2024 to October 2025. Year-over-year energy prices were down 6.5% nationally with nine provinces reporting decreasing energy prices (fastest: Alberta). Québec reported year-over-year growth in energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices fell 3.1% from September 2025 to October 2025. National energy prices were down 3.7% with nine provinces reporting lower prices compared to the previous month. New Brunswick reported a monthly increase in energy prices, while Ontario reported the fastest decline.
In October 2025, gasoline prices were down 10.5% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia. All provinces reported lower gasoline prices, with Alberta seeing the fastest decline. Québec and Manitoba reported lowest decline in gas prices year-over-year.
Gasoline prices were down 6.1% from September to October in Nova Scotia and down 4.8% nationally. All provinces reported monthly declines in gasoline prices, led by Alberta.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were up 2.8% in October 2025 compared with October 2024. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels price index increased 7.0% compared to September 2024, with six provinces reporting increases. New Brunswick reported the largest increase in fuel oil prices while Saskatchewan and British Columbia reported the largest declines.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were up 1.3%. National fuel oil prices were up 2.3% from September to October, with increases observed in eight of the nine reporting provinces. New Brunswick reported the fastest monthly fuel oil price increase, while Québec saw no change.
Food prices increased 2.7% in Nova Scotia year-over-year, below national average food price inflation of 3.4% in October 2025. Food prices were up in every province, led by Saskatchewan.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices declined 0.7% from September to October. National food prices were down 0.3% with declines in eight provinces led by Nova Scotia. Manitoba reported the only increase in food prices, while Saskatchewan reported no change.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 3.4% from October 2024 to October 2025. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.7% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Nova Scotia and Manitoba reported the fastest increases in inflation excluding food and energy prices while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest growth.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.7% from September to October. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.7%, with gains in all provinces led by Manitoba. Prince Edward Island had the smallest monthly decline in prices for all items excluding food and energy.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 4.8% in Nova Scotia in October 2025. National shelter prices were up 2.5% with increases in all provinces. Québec had the largest increase in shelter prices, while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.
Monthly shelter costs were up 0.7% in Nova Scotia from September to October. Nationally, shelter costs were up 0.6%, with increases in nine provinces. The largest monthly increase was in Manitoba, with Saskatchewan reporting no change.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for coffee/tea, beef, and pork. The largest year-over-year price declines were for sugar/confectionery and fats/oils.
In detailed shelter cost components, all components had price increases year-over-year with the fastest growth for home/mortgage insurance and rent.
Household operations/furnishings costs were up 3.1% overall. The largest year-over-year price increase was for paper/plastic/aluminum products, while prices fell the most for cleaning products and furniture.
Clothing and footwear prices were up 0.2% year-over-year in October with the fastest price growth in clothing/accessories/jewellery. Woman's clothing prices declined the most in October.
Health and personal care costs were up 3.5% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components except non-prescribed medicine. Personal care services and supplies reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were down 0.8% year-over-year in October. The fastest increases were among vehicle insurance, while there were notable declines for inter-city transportation and gasoline.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 3.5% from October 2024 to October 2025 with the fastest increase for travel services/accommodations, and declines reported for recreational equipment/services (excluding RV's) and purchase/operation of recreational vehicles.
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were down 0.2% year-over-year, with an increase in prices for beer and wine from stores offset by declines in all other categories, led by recreational cannabis.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation August also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023. Core measures of inflation have been rising since the end of 2024.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in October 2025 were:
- CPI-common: 2.7% (unchanged from the previous month)
- CPI-median: 2.9% (down from 3.1% the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 3.0% (down from 3.1% the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 2.9% (up from 2.8% in the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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