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February 17, 2026ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR JANUARY 2026 Note that the removal of the consumer carbon price on April 1, 2025 has affected energy prices, with all provinces (except Québec) also removing provincial consumer carbon prices. While other factors such as global commodity prices will continue to affect Canadian energy prices, it is expected that this policy change will be reflected in year-over-year rates until March 2026.
The temporary Goods and Services Tax (GST)/Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) break continues to affect year-over-year all-items CPI in January. The tax exemption began on December 14, 2024 and ended on February 15, 2025. Statistics Canada notes that the most affected indexes continued to be for restaurant meals, followed by prices for alcoholic beverages, toys and children's clothing.
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 2.7% year-over-year in January 2026, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Nationally, consumer prices grew 2.3% year-over-year in January 2025, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Inflation was fastest in Québec and slowest in Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 2.7% year-over-year inflation were: food purchased from restaurants, rent, homeowners' replacement cost, beer purchased from stores, and homeowners' home and mortgage insurance.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: gasoline, purchase and operation of recreational vehicles, fuel oil/other fuels, inter-city transportation, and fresh vegetables.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was down 0.1% from December 2025 to January 2026. National prices were also down 0.2% on average. There were price decreases reported in six provinces (led by Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick) with the fastest increase reported in British Columbia.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: water, men's clothing, fresh vegetables, household appliances, and homeowners' home and mortgage insurance. Major downward contributors were: inter-city transportation, travel tours, paper/plastic/aluminum foil supplies, gasoline, and electricity.
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 11.5% from January 2025 to January 2026. Year-over-year energy prices were down 10.9% nationally with all provinces reporting decreasing energy prices (fastest: Saskatchewan). Québec reported slowest decline in energy prices year-over-year.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 1.1% from December 2025 to January 2026. National energy prices were up 0.8% with five provinces reporting higher prices compared to the previous month, led by Alberta. New Brunswick reported the fastest decline in energy prices over the previous month.
In January 2026, gasoline prices were down 19.9% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia, the fastest decline among provinces. Nationally, gasoline prices were down 16.7% as all provinces reported declines. Québec reported slowest decline in gas prices year-over-year.
Gasoline prices were down 1.5% from December to January in Nova Scotia. Nationally gasoline prices were up 0.5% with four provinces reporting higher prices and six reporting declines compared to December. New Brunswick reported the fastest decline while the fastest increase was reported in Alberta.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were down 4.8% in January 2026 compared with January 2025. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels price index decreased 5.2% compared to January 2025, with all provinces except New Brunswick reporting declines. British Columbia reported the fastest decline.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were up 1.0% compared to December 2025. National fuel oil prices were down 0.6% from December to January, with decreases observed in five provinces. British Columbia and Manitoba reported the fastest monthly fuel oil price declines while the fastest growth was in Saskatchewan.
Food prices increased 9.2% in Nova Scotia year-over-year, above national average food price inflation of 7.3% in January 2026. Food prices were up in every province, led by Prince Edward Island.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices grew 0.6% from December to January. National food prices were up 0.5% with all provinces reporting growth. Prince Edward Island and British Columbia reported the fastest monthly growth while the slowest growth was in Québec and Saskatchewan.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 3.2% from January 2025 to January 2026. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.4% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Manitoba reported the fastest increases in inflation excluding food and energy prices (followed by Nova Scotia) while Ontario and Prince Edward Island reported the slowest growth.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were down 0.1% from December to January. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were down 0.2%, with eight provinces reporting declines, led by Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island. British Columbia and Saskatchewan reported no change compared to December.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 3.9% in Nova Scotia in January 2026. National shelter prices were up 1.7% with increases in all provinces except Prince Edward Island. Québec had the fastest increase in shelter prices.
Monthly shelter costs were up 0.1% in Nova Scotia from December to January. Nationally, shelter costs were down 0.1% as five provinces reported growth (led by Saskatchewan), three provinces reported declines, and two were unchanged from December. The fastest decline was reported in Prince Edward Island.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for coffee/tea, sugar/confectionary, beef, and food from restaurants. The largest year-over-year price declines were for fresh fruits and vegetables.
In detailed shelter cost components, the fastest year-over-year growth was for reported for water and home/mortgage insurance.
Household operations/furnishings costs were up 1.6% overall. The largest year-over-year price increase was for textiles, while prices fell the most for internet access.
Clothing and footwear prices were up 4.4% year-over-year in January as all sub-components grew, with the fastest price growth in clothing accessories/jewellery and children's clothing.
Health and personal care costs were up 4.3% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components except non-prescribed medicine. Personal care services and supplies reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were down 5.0% year-over-year in January due to a large decline in gasoline prices. The fastest increases were among parts/maintenance/repairs and purchase/leasing of passenger vehicles.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 1.6% from January 2025 to January 2026 with the fastest increase for reading (excluding textbooks), and the only decline reported for purchase/operation of recreational vehicles.
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 4.4% year-over-year, with an increase in prices for beer and wine from stores and alcohol from licensed establishments partially offset by declines in cigarettes and recreational cannabis.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%. After decelerating in 2024, Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy rose in 2025 and has remained above 2%.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation August also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023. Core measures of inflation began to rise toward the end of 2024.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in January 2026 were:
- CPI-common: 2.7% (down from 2.8% from the previous month)
- CPI-median: 2.5% (down from 2.6% the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 2.4% (down from 2.7% the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 2.6% (down from 2.8% the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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