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March 13, 2026US GDP 2025 Q4 AND ANNUAL (SECOND ESTIMATE) 
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released second estimates of Q4 US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
US real GDP growth was revised down 0.7 percentage points to 0.7% (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) in Q4 2025, decelerating from 4.4% in Q3.
The increase in real GDP was driven by growth in consumer spending (+2.0%), non-residential investment (+2.2%), state and local expenditures (+1.3%) and a decline in imports (-1.1%). Growth was partially offset by lower residential investment (-0.5%), exports (-3.3%), federal defence (-10.7%) and non-defence (-24.4%) expenditures for the quarter. The US federal government experienced a shut down in Q4.
Current-dollar GDP growth was revised down 0.6 percentage points to 4.5% (annualized rate) in the second estimate.
Private inventory investment was revised up to -$7.5 billion from -$13.6 billion net accumulation in the advanced estimates in Q4 2025.
Annual
Real GDP was revised down 0.1 percentage point to 2.1% in 2025, following growth of 2.8% in 2024.
Growth was supported in 2025 by consumer spending (+2.6%), non-residential investment (+4.1%), federal defence expenditures (+1.2%), state and local expenditure (+2.5%), and exports (+1.6%). There were declines in residential investment (-2.1%), federal non-defence expenditures (-4.2%), and an increase in imports (+2.7%).
Current dollar GDP grew 5.0% in 2025, following growth of 5.3% in 2024.
Private inventory investment was estimated at $30.6 billion net accumulation for 2025.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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