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March 16, 2026ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR FEBRUARY 2026 Note that the removal of the consumer carbon price on April 1, 2025 has affected energy prices, with all provinces (except Québec) also removing provincial consumer carbon prices. While other factors such as global commodity prices will continue to affect Canadian energy prices, it is expected that this policy change will be reflected in year-over-year rates until March 2026.
The temporary Goods and Services Tax (GST)/Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) break continues to affect year-over-year all-items CPI in January. The tax exemption began on December 14, 2024 and ended on February 15, 2025. Statistics Canada notes that the most affected indexes continued to be for restaurant meals, followed by prices for alcoholic beverages, toys and children's clothing.
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 1.7% year-over-year in February 2026, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month.
Nationally, consumer prices grew 1.8% year-over-year in February 2026, down 0.5 percentage point from the previous month. Inflation was fastest in Québec and slowest in Prince Edward Island.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 1.7% year-over-year inflation were: food purchased from restaurants, rent, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, homeowners' replacement cost, and homeowners' home and mortgage insurance.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: gasoline, purchase and operation of recreational vehicles, furniture, pet food and supplies, and fresh vegetables.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was up 0.4% from January 2026 to February 2026. National prices were up 0.5% on average. The fastest rate of monthly increase was in Saskatchewan and British Columbia, with the slowest in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: gasoline, travel tours, fuel oil and other fuels, rent, and women's clothing. Major downward contributors were: financial services, telephone services, dairy products, homeowners' home and mortgage insurance, and fresh fruit.
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 8.8% from February 2025 to February 2026. Year-over-year energy prices were down 9.3% nationally with all provinces reporting decreasing energy prices (fastest: Alberta). Québec reported the slowest decline in energy prices year-over-year.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices were up 4.2% from January 2026 to February 2026. National energy prices were up 2.3% with every province except Alberta reporting higher prices compared to the previous month, led by British Columbia.
In February 2026, gasoline prices were down 16.2% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia, more than the national average decline of 14.2%. All provinces reported declines, with Québec reporting slowest decline in gas prices year-over-year, and Manitoba the fastest.
Gasoline prices were up 4.6% from January to February in Nova Scotia. Nationally gasoline prices were up 3.6% with all provinces reporting higher prices, led by British Columbia. Alberta reported the slowest monthly increase in gasoline prices.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were down 1.6% in February 2026 compared with February 2025. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels price index increased 1.3% compared to February 2025 with five provinces, led by Prince Edward Island, reporting declines. New Brunswick reported the fastest increase.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were up 9.0% compared to January 2026. National fuel oil prices were up 10.1% from January to February, with increases in every province except Saskatchewan. Newfoundland and Labrador reported the fastest monthly fuel oil price increase.
Food prices increased 5.2% in Nova Scotia year-over-year, below national average food price inflation of 5.4% in February 2026. Food prices were up in every province, led by Ontario and Prince Edward Island.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices fell 0.3% from January to February. National food prices were unchanged with five provinces reporting growth. Saskatchewan reported the fastest monthly growth while the largest decline was in New Brunswick. Prince Edward Island and Ontario reported no monthly change in food prices.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 2.4% from February 2025 to February 2026. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.0% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Québec reported the fastest increase in inflation excluding food and energy prices, while Ontario and Prince Edward Island reported the slowest growth.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.1% from January to February. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.5%, with all provinces reporting increases, led by Saskatchewan. Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia reported the slowest increase in inflation excluding food and energy.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 3.6% in Nova Scotia in February 2026. National shelter prices were up 1.5% with increases in all provinces except Prince Edward Island and Ontario. Québec had the fastest increase in shelter prices.
Monthly shelter costs were up 0.8% in Nova Scotia from January to February, the fastest monthly increase among provinces. Nationally, shelter costs were down 0.1% as six provinces reported growth, three provinces reported declines (led by Alberta), and British Columbia was unchanged from January.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for coffee/tea, sugar/confectionary, beef, and food from restaurants. The largest year-over-year price declines were for fresh fruits and vegetables, as well as fats and oils
In detailed shelter cost components, the fastest year-over-year growth was for reported for water and home/mortgage insurance.
Household operations/furnishings costs were down 0.8% overall. The largest year-over-year price increase was for textiles, while prices fell the most for furniture.
Clothing and footwear prices were up 3.9% year-over-year in February as all sub-components grew except for clothing materials and services and men's clothing, with the fastest price growth in clothing accessories/jewellery and children's clothing.
Health and personal care costs were up 3.2% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components except non-prescribed medicine. Personal care services and supplies reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were down 2.8% year-over-year in February due to a large decline in gasoline prices. The fastest increases were among vehicle insurance.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 0.7% from February 2025 to February 2026 with the fastest increase for travel services and accommodation, and the largest decline in the purchase and operation of recreational vehicles.
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 1.8% year-over-year, with increases in all categories of alcohol sales led by beer from stores, partially offset by declines in cigarettes and recreational cannabis.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%. After decelerating in 2024, Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy rose in 2025 and has remained above 2%.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation August also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023. Core measures of inflation began to rise toward the end of 2024.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in February 2026 were:
- CPI-common: 2.4% (down from 2.7% from the previous month)
- CPI-median: 2.3% (down from 2.5% the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 2.3% (down from 2.4% the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 2.3% (down from 2.6% the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions
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