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March 28, 2019US GDP 2018 Q4 (THIRD ESTIMATE) 
The US economy grew at 2.2 per cent (seasonally adjusted annualized rate, chained 2012 dollars) in Q4 2018, according to the third estimate by the US BEA. The previous initial estimate for Q4 growth was 2.6 per cent. Growth in the third quarter was 3.4 per cent. Since Q4 2017, the US real GDP has grown by 3.0 per cent.
Growth in Q4 2018 reflected positive contributions from personal consumption, non-residential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential investment, state and local government spending and a rise in imports.
The lower real GDP growth for Q4 2018 compared to the initial estimate was due to lower growth in household goods consumption, state and local government spending and non-residential fixed investment. Residential investment saw a larger contraction in Q4 than the initial estimate.
Personal consumption continued to expand with growth of 2.5 per cent in Q4 with goods consumption rising 2.6 per cent and services up 2.4 per cent. Residential investment contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter with a decline of 4.7 per cent. Non-residential investment was up 5.4 per cent with growth in equipment and intellectual property products offsetting a decline in structures (-3.9 per cent). Private inventory investment increased for the quarter. Real exports rose 1.8 per cent in Q4 after declining in the previous quarter. Imports were up 2.0 per cent on increases in both goods and services imports.
US nominal GDP growth (including the impacts of rising prices) was 4.1 per cent in Q4, compared to 4.9 per cent growth reported in the third quarter. The personal consumption expenditure price index increased 1.5 per cent, following a 1.6 per cent increase last quarter.
In 2018, the US economy expanded by 2.9 per cent, the fastest pace of growth since 2015. Positive contributions came from personal consumption, non-residential fixed investment, exports, government spending, private inventory investment, partially offset by lower residential investment and rising imports. The acceleration in the 2018 growth rate compared to 2017 was due to accelerations in non-residential investment, private inventory investment, federal government spending, exports and personal consumption, and an upturn in state and local spending, partially offset by a small downturn in residential investment.
Note: Due to the US Federal Government shutdown the US GDP advance and second release for Q4 2018 were combined into a single "initial release" on February 28, 2019.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
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