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Thomas StorringDirector – Economics and Statistics
Tel: 902-424-2410Email: thomas.storring@novascotia.ca

April 29, 2020
US GDP 2020 Q1 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE)

US Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that the decline in first quarter GDP was, in part, due to the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued "stay-at-home" orders in March. This led to rapid changes in demand, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

The US economy declined 4.8 per cent (seasonally adjusted annualized rate, chained 2012 dollars) in Q1 2020, according to the advance estimate by the US BEA. Growth was 2.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019. The decline in real GDP in first quarter is due to negative contributions from personal consumption, non-residential fixed investment, exports, and private inventory investment. These movements were partially offset by accelerations in residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending and deceleration in imports. The quarter had the largest decline in GDP since Q1 2013. 

Personal consumption expenditure growth declined to 7.6 per cent in Q1 (annualized rate) compared to an increase of 1.8 per cent in the previous quarter. The decrease in durable goods and increase in nondurable goods led to negative growth of 1.3 per cent among goods expenditures. Services decreased 10.2 per cent. Non-residential investment declined 8.6 per cent with declines in structures and equipment. Residential investment grew 21.0 per cent. Exports declined 8.7 per cent with decreased services exports (-21.4 per cent) and a decline in goods (-1.2 per cent). Imports declined 15.3 per cent compared to the previous quarter.

US nominal GDP growth declined 3.5 per cent in Q1, compared to 3.5 per cent growth reported in the fourth quarter.  The personal consumption expenditure price index increased 1.3 per cent, following a 1.4 per cent increase in last quarter.

 

 

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis



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