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February 05, 2021LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - JANUARY 2021 LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - JANUARY 2021
Labour force survey results reflect the period from January 10 to 16, during which time some provinces, particularly Ontario and Quebec implemented more stringent measures compared to the December reference week. Public health measures continued is other provinces and there was some easing of restrictions between December and January in Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia (Halifax in-person dining eased on January 4).
Nova Scotia’s seasonally adjusted employment level was up 7,800 (+1.7%) to 462,700 in January 2021, offsetting the employment decline of 7,800 in December 2020.
Nova Scotia’s employment remains 4,300 (-0.9%) lower than the pre-COVID level of February 2020 (which has been revised to 467,000). Nova Scotia has recovered over 94% (70,700) of the peak employment loss reported in April (75,000). In comparison, Canada has recovered 71% (2.134 million) of April peak employment losses (-2.989 million).
Nova Scotia’s labour force increased 6,100 (+1.2%) to 504,800 in January. The labour force in January 2021 is smaller by 2,800 (-0.6%) than February 2020 despite population growth of 5,400 (+0.7%) since then. The number of unemployed persons decreased 1,700 compared to December and was 1,500 higher compared to February 2020.
With a proportionally larger increase in employment and a labour force, the unemployment rate decreased 0.5 percentage points from last month to 8.3% in January 2021.
The population not in the labour force decreased 5,900 compared to last month. Compared to February 2020, there are an additional 8,200 persons not in the labour force.
In January, full-time employment increased 3,700 (+1.0%) while part-time employment increased 4,200 (+5.4%). Employment since February 2020 has increased by 5,000 (+1.3%) in full-time jobs but is lower by 9,200 (-10.1%) in part-time jobs. Changes in the number of hours worked within one job can result in shift employment between part-time and full-time.
The participation rate was up 0.8 percentage points to 61.8% in January and remains 0.7 percentage points below the level observed in February 2020. The employment rate increased 0.9 percentage points to 56.6% and is down 0.9 percentage points compared to the February 2020 level.
In addition to the employment decline form February 2020, there are elevated numbers of persons who are counted as employed, but have zero hours (for non-routine reasons like vacation, maternity/parental leave, labour dispute) or had their hours cut by 50% or more. In January 2021 in Nova Scotia there were 27,300 persons employed but at less than 50% of their usual hours (including zero hours), down from 28,600 in December 2020 and still elevated by 7,500 compared to 19,800 in February 2020. Combined with those who have lost employment, this amounts to about 2.5% of Nova Scotia’s February 2020 employment level; down from a high of 28.1% in April 2020. The largest total employment/hour impact in December 2020 was in Ontario (9.3%) and Quebec (8.3%). The smallest change was in Newfoundland and Labrador (0.8%) and Nova Scotia (2.5%).
Statistics Canada reported in supplemental information that Nova Scotia had an increase of 1,800 (Feb-20 to Jan-21) of people who were not in the labour force but wanted to work, currently at 15,100 people. This is down from the 55,600 people in April 2020.
The labour underutilization rate (COVID-19 impact definition) is the proportion of the potential labour force (labour force + those wanting work) that is unemployed, not in labour force but wanted work or employed but have lost the majority of their usual hours.
Labour underutilization has declined from highs during March and April but remains elevated compared to February 2020 in all provinces. In February 2020, Nova Scotia's labour underutilization rate was 16.2%. This underutilization increased to 37.1% in April 2020 and subsequently fell 15.6% in November 2020 before rising to 17.3% in December and 16.2% in January 2021. The January 2021 highest labour underutilization rate is in Newfoundland and Labrador (23.0%) and the lowest is in British Columbia (14.4%).
Age Cohorts
Comparing January 2021 to February 2020, the remaining shortfall in employment is mostly attributable to declines in the youth cohort (ages 15-24). Employment among youth was down 6,300 from February 2020 to January 2021 while the labour force declined by 3,900. For core-aged workers (25-54), employment was up from February 2020 to January 2021 (+2,400) despite a slight decline in labour force (-200). For older workers, employment fell by 400 from February 2020 while the labour force was up 1,300.
The unemployment rate declined for core-aged and older workers in Nova Scotia in January 2021. Compared to the previous month, unemployment rate increased 4.7 percentage points to 17.4% for youth workers (ages 15-24). For core-aged workers (ages 25-54), unemployment rate declined 1.7 percentage points to 6.2% while the unemployment rate was down 0.7 percentage points to 8.2% for older workers in January 2021.
The participation rate for younger Nova Scotians increased 6.5 percentage points to 70.0% in January 2021. For core-aged workers, the participation rate was down 0.1 percentage points to 88.0% while the participation rate for older workers declined 0.1 percentage points to 33.3% in January.
Compared to December 2021, employment rates increased for all age groups. Employment rate for youth increased 2.4 percentage points to 57.8% and 1.5 percentage points to 82.6% for core-aged workers. For older workers, the employment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 30.5%.
Compared with February 2020, employment rates are down for youth (-5.3 percentage points) and older workers (-0.7 percentage points). For core-aged workers, employment rate was up 0.7 percentage points in January 2021 compared to February 2020.
Males and Females
Compared with February 2020, female employment was down by 100 (-0.04%) while male employment remains 4,100 (-1.8%) below the pre-pandemic level. Compared to February 2020, the male labour force was down 1,300 (-0.5%) and the female labour force was down 1,400 (-0.6%). The number of unemployed males has increased 2,800 and the number of unemployed females was down 1,300. The male population not in the labour force increased by 4,000 from February 2020 to January 2021 while the number of females not in the labour force grew by 4,300.
In January 2021, the monthly unemployment rate declined 0.9 percentage points to 6.5% for females and remained unchanged at 10.1% for males.
The participation rate was up 0.4 percentage points to 58.9% for females and 1.1 percentage points to 64.8% for males.
The monthly employment rate was up 0.9 percentage points to 55.1% for females and 1.0 percentage points for males to 58.3%.
Sectors and Industries
The monthly employment gain from Dec20 to Jan21 was mostly in private sector employees (9,700) with a smaller (1,700) increase in public sector employees and a decline in self-employment (-3,600). Compared to February 2020, employment remains lower in the private sector (-16,600) and self-employed (-2,100) and is higher in public sector employees (+14,400).
For January, goods-producing sector employment was up 3,400 jobs with gains in forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas (+1,500), construction (+1,300) and manufacturing (+1,200)
Service-producing sector employment increased 4,500 in January. Employment gains were largest in transportation and warehousing (+3,200), information, culture and recreation (+1,800) and health and social assistance (+1,400). The largest employment declines were in other services (-1,800) and accommodation and food services (-1,100).
Employment since February 2020 is 3,500 higher in goods-producing industries with higher levels in agriculture, utilities and construction offsetting declines in manufacturing and little change in forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas.
Service-producing employment is lower by 7,700 since February 2020 with the lower levels in wholesale and retail trade (-7,800), accommodation and food service (-13,200), and information, culture and recreation (-3,000) accounting for the largest number of job losses that have not been recovered.
Employment levels in January 2021 are also lower in business, building and other support services (-1,200) and other services (-700) than February 2020.
Employment levels are higher in January 2021 than February 2020 in the other service sectors with the largest increases in professional, scientific, and technical services (+6,000), educational services (+5,500), transportation and warehousing (+3,000), and health care and social assistance (+2,100).
Regions – January 2021 vs January 2020 (unadjusted 3 month moving average)
Compared with January 2020, Cape Breton employment declined by 5,300 while the labour force was down 5,000. The number of unemployed increased 300 and the unemployment rate increased 1.7 percentage points to 13.8%.
For the North Shore region, the labour force declined by 3,200 while employment was down by 1,200. The number of unemployed declined by 2,000 and the unemployment rate has decreased 2.4 percentage points to 6.5%.
The Annapolis Valley reported a decline of 1,800 in the labour force and a decline of 1,300 in employment compared to January 2020 data. Unemployment was down by 500. As a result, the unemployment rate declined 0.7 percentage points to 5.8% over the past year. There are 2,200 additional people not in the labour force.
Compared to a year ago, the Southern region experienced a decrease of 700 in labour force and 200 in employment. The number of unemployed decreased by 500 while the unemployment rate decreased 0.9 percentage points to 9.1%.
In the Halifax region, the labour force recorded an increase of 7,300 while employment has increased 4,600 compared to January 2020. With unemployment increasing 2,800, the unemployment rate increased 0.9 percentage points to 7.4%. The number of persons not in the labour force declined by 200 in Halifax from a year ago.
Provincial Comparisons
Seven provinces reported increasing employment in January but large declines in Quebec (-2.3%) and Ontario (-2.1%) offset these to cause a national employment decline this month (-1.2%). Nova Scotia (+1.7%) posted the largest monthly increase across provinces.
Statistics Canada notes that there were increased restrictions on certain economic activities in a number of provinces, including Ontario and Quebec. Previously-imposed restrictions remained in effect for Alberta and Manitoba.
Compared to February 2020, the labour force has increased in New Brunswick (+0.6) and British Columbia (+1.5%) with all other provinces reporting decline. The largest decline in the labour force since February 2020 has been in Prince Edward Island (-4.3%).
All provinces report lower employment in January 2021 than February 2020. The largest employment declines since February is in Quebec (-5.8%), Ontario (-5.4%), Manitoba (-5.0%) and Prince Edward Island (-4.2%). Employment declines have been less in Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.9%), Nova Scotia (-0.9%) and New Brunswick (-1.0%).
Unemployment rates was up in four provinces in January 2021 – Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia. The highest unemployment rate for January 2021 is in Newfoundland and Labrador at 12.8% and the lowest is in Saskatchewan at 7.2%. Canada’s unemployment rate was 9.4% in January 2021.
National Comparisons: Cities (Monthly, 3 month moving average)
The unemployment rate for Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in January 2021 was 7.5% (seasonally adjusted 3 month moving average). Kelowna at 4.3% had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs while the highest was in Barrie (14.2%).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for Halifax was 63.4%, up compared to last month. Peterborough (48.8%) had the lowest employment rate, while Calgary (64.7%) the highest.
Halifax’s employment (3 month moving average) for January 2020 was up 0.9 % compared to the December 2020 result. The employment level (Nov-Jan) average compared to Oct-Dec average was up by the largest amount in Hamilton (1.7%) and decreased the most in Barrie (-5.4%).
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
Sources:
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0287-01 Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0294-01 Labour force characteristics by census metropolitan area, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0293-01 Labour force characteristics by economic region, three-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0355-01 Employment by industry, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, and trend-cycle, last 5 months (x 1,000)
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0288-01 Employment by class of worker, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months (x 1,000)
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