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May 18, 2021EU AND EURO AREA GDP, Q1 2021 [FLASH] 
In a flash estimate (updated from the preliminary flash), Eurostat reported that real GDP declined 1.6% (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) in the European Union and 2.5% in the Euro Area in the first quarter of 2021. Although GDP rebounded sharply in Q2 of 2020 (+55.6% in the EU and +60.3% in the Euro Area), GDP has contracted in the most recent two quarters as restrictions were renewed to contain COVID outbreaks. Real GDP in the European Union was 5.0% smaller in Q1 2021 than it was in Q4 2019. Real GDP in the Euro Area was 5.5% smaller than in Q4 2019.
A seasonally adjusted annualized rate shows what the percent change would be if the quarterly rate was compounded for four quarters. Reporting annualized rates facilitates comparability between annual and quarterly growth but can exaggerate change when series are volatile. The COVID-19 shocks do not indicate contraction of EU GDP by 1.6% in Q1. It would take four quarters of compounded growth at the same pace as reported in Q1 to decrease EU GDP by 1.6%. Real GDP in Q1 decreased 0.4% in the EU27 and 0.6% in the EA19 compared to the previous quarter (non-annualized).
Source: Eurostat
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