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December 03, 2021LABOUR MARKET TRENDS - NOVEMBER 2021 Labour force survey results reflect the period from November 7 to 13. Public health measures in place during the reference week were similar to those in place during the October reference week. In some jurisdictions, particularly Ontario and Quebec, capacity limits and distancing requirements had been further eased where proof of vaccination was required.
Nova Scotia’s seasonally adjusted employment level increased 3,700 (+0.8%) to 470,400 in November 2021 following on increases the previous five months as the economy reopened after the third-wave restrictions in spring 2021.
Nova Scotia’s employment was 0.7% (+3,400) above the pre-COVID employment level of February 2020. This is the first month Nova Scotia’s employment has surpassed the pre-pandemic benchmark. The November employment level is also the highest employment on record in Nova Scotia since modern Labour Force Survey records were kept.
Nova Scotia’s labour force increased 3,300 (+0.6%) to 512,100 in November. The labour force in November was higher by 4,500 (+0.9%) than the February 2020 level while the population grew by 14,800 (+1.8%) over the same period. The number of unemployed persons fell by 500 compared to October 2021 and was 1,000 higher compared to February 2020.
As the increase in employment outpaced the increase in the labour force, the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points from last month to 8.1% in November 2021.
In November, full-time employment was up 7,700 (+2.1%) to 382,600 positions. This is the highest level of full-time employment for Nova Scotia since modern Labour Force Survey records began in 1976. Part-time employment decreased 4,000 (-4.4%) to 87,800. Compared to February 2020, full-time employment was higher by 6,500 (1.7%) while part time employment was lower by 3,100 (-3.4%). (Note that changes in full time and past time employment can include changes of hours within the same job.)
Nova Scotia’s participation rate was up 0.3 percentage points to 62.0% in November 2021. This was 0.5 percentage points below the February 2020 level. The number of persons not in the labour force decreased 2,000 (-0.6%) to 314,500 in November 2021, still 10,300 (3.4%) higher than pre-pandemic levels (February 2020).
In addition to the employment decline from February 2020, there were elevated numbers of persons who are counted as employed, but had zero hours (for non-routine reasons such as vacation, maternity/parental leave, labour dispute) or had their hours reduced by 50% or more.
In November 2021 in Nova Scotia there were 31,100 persons employed but at less than 50% of their usual hours (including zero hours), up from 24,300 in October but lower than 45,900 in May 2021. Just before the third-wave lockdown (March 2021), there were an elevated number of people employed at fewer than usual hours at 27,700 persons. Pre-pandemic in February 2020 there were an estimated 19,800 persons with reduced hours.
Employment losses and substantially reduced hours combine to account for 1.7% of Nova Scotia’s February 2020 employment level. The rate was 10.6% and peaked at 28.1% in April 2020. The largest total employment/reduced hour impacts in November 2021 was in Saskatchewan (1.9%). Five provinces have negative rates with employment growth since February 2020 exceeding the still elevated number of people with reduced hours.
Statistics Canada reported in supplemental information that from October to November 2021 Nova Scotia had a decline of 2,000 people who were not in the labour force but wanted to work, currently at 15,100 people. The number of people not in labour force and wanting work is 1,800 more than February 2020.
The labour underutilization rate (COVID-19 impact definition) is the proportion of the potential labour force (labour force + those wanting work) that is either unemployed, not in labour force but wanted work or employed but have lost the majority of their usual hours.
In February 2020, Nova Scotia's labour underutilization rate was 14.1%. This underutilization increased to 37.1% in April 2020 and subsequently fell to 15.5% in April 2021, before rising to 22.8% in May 2021. The labour underutilization rate of 15.1% in September 2021 was the lowest since start of the pandemic. In November 2021 the rate rose to 16.7%
Newfoundland and Labrador reported the highest labour underutilization in November 2021 at 21.3% and Quebec (10.6%) reported the lowest.
Age Cohorts
In November 2021, the youth (aged 15-24) labour force was up 3,200 while employment fell by 400. Among core aged workers (aged 25-54), employment grew (+3,700), faster than the gain in the labour force (1,600). The labour force fell among older workers (aged 55+) while employment was up by 500 from October 2021.
Compared to October 2021, November unemployment rates increased for youth while declining for older and core-aged workers. The youth unemployment rate increased 4.3 percentage points to 13.9%. The unemployment rate for older workers was down 1.5 percentage points to 7.4% and was down 0.7 percentage points to 7.0% for core-aged workers.
The participation rate for core-aged Nova Scotians rose by 0.2 percentage points to 87.7% in November. For younger workers, the participation rate increased by 2.9 percentage point to 69.9%. Older workers participation rate declined by 0.5 percentage points to 34.1%.
The employment rate was down for youth (-0.5 percentage points) but higher for core-aged workers (+0.9 percentage points) and older workers (+0.1 percentage points) in November 2021 compared to October 2021.
When compared to February 2020, youth saw lower levels of employment in November 2021 while core aged workers and older workers had higher employment levels.
In the youth cohort, employment was down 4,000 while the labour force was down 4,300. Employment among core-aged workers was up 2,300 while the labour force has increased 2,500. For older workers (aged 55+), employment was up 5,200 while labour force was up 6,200; the population aged 55+ increased by 12,000 from February 2020 to November 2021.
Compared to February 2020, the November participation rate was down 3.1 percentage points for youth and 0.3 percentage points fore core-aged workers while it rose 0.6 percentage points for older workers.
Compared with February 2020, employment rates were down for youth (-3.0 percentage points) and core-aged workers (-0.3 percentage points) while the employment rate was up for older workers (+0.4 percentage points).
Males and Females
In November 2021, the female labour force was up 2,400 while female employment rose 1,400. Male employment rose 2,300 as the labour force grew by 800 from October 2021.
Compared with October 2021, the November 2021 the participation rate rose 0.5 percentage points for female workers to 59.1% and 0.1 percentage points for male workers at 65.0%.
The monthly employment rate was up 0.5 percentage points to 59.4% for males and up 0.2 percentage points to 54.6% for females.
In November 2021, the monthly unemployment rate was down 0.6 percentage points to 8.7% for male workers and was up 0.4 percentage points to 7.6% for female workers.
Compared to February 2020, the employment rate among males is 0.3 percentage points lower and among females is 0.9 percentage points lower.
Compared to pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020, female employment was up by 500 and male employment was up 2,900 in November 2021. November 2021 is the first month when both male and female employment have exceeded February 2020 levels. Compared to February 2020, the female labour force has increased 1,900 while male labour force increased 2,500. The number of unemployed females increased 1,500 while the number of males unemployed is 400 less than in February 2020. The number of females not in the labour force was up 5,800 from February 2020 while the male population not in the labour force was up 4,600.
Female full-time employment was down 1,700 compared to February 2020 while rising by 2,300 in part-time employment. Male full-time employment was up 8,200 from pre-pandemic levels while males with part-time employment was down 5,300.
Sectors and Industries
November employment was higher for private sector employees (+1,600) and self-employed (+2,500), offset by a small decline among public sector employees (-300) compared to October 2021.
Employment in goods-producing industries rose for the second consecutive month, increasing by 900 in November 2021. Increases in construction (+2,500) and manufacturing (+300) offset declines in agriculture (-200), forestry, fishing, mining/quarrying (-1,800). Utilities employment was unchanged for the month.
Service-producing industries’ employment rose 2,900 in November. The largest employment gains in November were in health care and social assistance (+1,400), professional, scientific and technical services (+1,300), and information, culture and recreation (+1,200). The largest decline month-to-month was in accommodation and food services (-2,000) followed by transportation and warehousing (-1,000).
Comparing November 2021 with February 2020, employment was lower in the private sector (-13,200) while self-employment (+5,000) and public sector employment (+11,700) have increased.
Employment since February 2020 has declined 700 in goods-production industries with lower employment in manufacturing (-2,300) and forestry, fishing, and mining (-2,200). Employment was higher in utilities (+1,800), construction (+1,400) and agriculture (+600) in November 2021.
Nova Scotia’s service-producing employment was higher by 4,200 than the pre-pandemic threshold with significant changes in subsectors. Employment gains from February 2020 through November 2021 have occurred professional, scientific and technical services (+8,400), transportation/warehousing (+6,000), educational services (+3,000) and health care and social assistance (+2,600). Employment levels remains significantly lower in some industries: accommodation and food services (-9,400), information, culture and recreation (-4,000), and wholesale/retail (-3,500). Other sectors were little changed.
Regions – November 2021 vs November 2020 (unadjusted 3 month moving average)
Regional results for November are three month moving averages from the period September-November. Changes do not reflect the full extent of employment volatility observed in monthly results for the province as a whole.
Compared with November 2020, Cape Breton employment increased by 1,500 while labour force was up by 2,300. The number of unemployed people increased by 800 and the unemployment rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 12.4% in November 2021. The number of persons not in the labour force was down 2,900 compared to the same period one year ago.
For the North Shore region, the labour force increased 4,200 and employment was up 2,100. The number of unemployed people was up by 2,100 which resulted in a 2.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 8.5%. The number of persons not in the labour force declined by 4,000 compared to November 2020.
The Annapolis Valley reported an increase both in labour force (+3,500) and employment (+2,200) when compared to November 2020. The unemployment rate increased 1.8 percentage points to 7.0%. The number of persons not in the labour force declined 2,600 from a year earlier.
In the Southern region, labour force increased 2,700 while employment grew by 2,200 people when compared to November 2020. The number of unemployed was up 500 and the unemployment rate was up 0.4 percentage points to 10.1% in November 2021. The number of persons not in the labour force declined 2,500 from a year earlier.
In the Halifax region, the labour force posted an increase of 4,200 while employment has increased 5,900 compared to November 2020. The number of unemployed was down 1,700 and the unemployment rate fell 0.7 percentage points to 5.9%. The number of persons not in the labour force increased by 3,700 in Halifax from a year ago.
Provincial Comparisons
Employment increased from October to November 2021 in all provinces in November with largest gains in Newfoundland and Labrador (+4.1%) and Prince Edward Island (+3.6%). The slowest growth was in Saskatchewan and British Columbia (both at +0.2%).
Nationally, employment was up 0.8% from October to November 2021.
Canada's labour force grew 0.2% in November with increases in six provinces, led by Prince Edward Island (+2.4%) followed by Nova Scotia and Alberta (both at +0.6%). The largest decline was in Saskatchewan (-0.9%).
Employment was higher in eight provinces compared to pre-pandemic levels. The largest increases were in Newfoundland and Labrador and British Columbia (both at +2.1%). Canada employment level is 1.0% higher than it was in February 2020. Only Saskatchewan (-1.8%) and Manitoba (-0.6%) continue to report employment below February 2020 levels.
Compared to February 2020, the labour force has increased in seven provinces including Nova Scotia. British Columbia (+2.6%) and Ontario (+2.5%) have seen the largest growth in labour force from pre-pandemic levels. The largest decline in the labour force since February 2020 to November 2021 was in Saskatchewan (-2.9%).
The highest unemployment rate for November 2021 was in Newfoundland and Labrador at 10.4% and the lowest rate was 4.5% in Quebec. Canada’s unemployment rate was 6.0% in November 2021. Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan reported lower unemployment rates in November 2021 than in February 2020.
National Comparisons: Cities (Monthly, 3 month moving average)
The unemployment rate for Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in November 2021 was 6.4% (seasonally adjusted 3 month moving average). Quebec City at 2.8% had the lowest unemployment rate among CMAs while the highest was in Saint John (8.5%).
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for Halifax was 63.0%, up 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. Guelph (67.0%) had the highest employment rate while Belleville (50.8%) had the lowest among CMAs.
Halifax’s employment (3 month moving average) for November 2021 was up 0.3% compared to the October 2021 result. The employment level (Sep-Nov) average compared to previous average (Aug-Oct) was up by the largest amount in Windsor (+4.2%) and decreased the most in Abbotsford-Mission (-1.8%).
Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3 month average.
Sources:
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0287-01 Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0294-01 Labour force characteristics by census metropolitan area, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0293-01 Labour force characteristics by economic region, three-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality, last 5 months
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0355-01 Employment by industry, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, and trend-cycle, last 5 months (x 1,000)
Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0288-01 Employment by class of worker, monthly, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, last 5 months (x 1,000)
Statistics Canada. Table: 14-10-0380-02 Labour force characteristics, three month moving average, seasonally adjusted (x 1,000)
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