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Thomas StorringDirector – Economics and Statistics
Tel: 902-424-2410Email:

September 20, 2023

At its scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate 5.25% to 5.50%. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May 2022.

Economic activity in the United States is estimated to have increased 2.1% (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) in the second quarter of 2023 reflecting gains in consumer spending, state/local spending, defence spending, and non-residential investment. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of growth at annualized pace of 2.0% or higher. 

With the slowing pace of job gains, the unemployment rate remained low in recent months. While tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are expected to weigh on economic activity hiring and inflation, the extent of these effects are still very uncertain. The Federal Reserve noted that the US banking system is sound and resilient. 

US inflation has eased in recent months but remains elevated. The United States Consumer Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) for All Urban Consumers increased 3.7% year-over-year in August 2023, up from the 3.2% increase reported in July 2023.

The Federal Reserve projects US economic activity to increase 2.1% in 2023, 1.5% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025. Compared to the June projections, this represents an upgrade for 2023 and 2024, and no change for 2025. Inflation is expected to average 3.7% this year before declining to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. Inflation projections (core personal consumer expenditures) are also slightly downgraded for the 2023 and upgraded for 2025 from the June projections, and was unchanged for 2024.

The Committee will continue to monitor economic developments and is prepared to adjust the monetary policy measures as appropriate, taking into account information on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. The next scheduled FOMC meeting will be held on October 31 - November 1, 2023. An updated summary of Economic Projections will be provided at the December 13, 2023 meeting.



Source: US Federal Reserve, FOMC StatementSummary of Economic Projections (September 20, 2023)

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