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October 19, 2022ANALYSIS OF NOVA SCOTIA'S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR SEPTEMBER 2022 TRENDS – September 2022
Nova Scotia’s All-Items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 7.3% year-over-year in September 2022. Inflation rate in Nova Scotia has been slowing since peaking at 9.3% in June 2022. Nationally, consumer prices also decelerated from 7.0% last month to being 6.9% higher than September 2021.
Inflation was highest in Prince Edward Island (+8.4%) while Newfoundland and Labrador (+6.1%) had the lowest. Compared to the previous month, four provinces had slower year-over-year inflation.
Nova Scotia’s consumer price inflation (year-over-year) excluding food and energy increased 5.1% in September 2022. Consumer prices excluding food and energy were up in all provinces led by British Columbia (+6.6%). Newfoundland and Labrador had the smallest increase at 3.8%.
For Canada, consumer price inflation exluding food and energy increased 5.4% year-over-year in September, following a gain of 5.3% in August. Nationally, prices for durable goods increased at a faster pace in September compared with August.
The CPI for food in Nova Scotia increased 10.5% in September, up from the 9.4% year-over-year increase reported in August 2022. Nationally, food prices were up 10.3% from a year earlier. All provinces recorded year-over-year increase in food prices led by Quebec (+11.0%). The lowest food inflation was reported in British Columbia (+9.2%).
Canadians paid 11.4% more for food purchased from stores when compared to September 2021 - the fastest pace of increase since August 1981. Multiple factors including weather, higher input costs, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and supply chain disruptions are contributing to higher food costs. Food inflation remains broad-based with increases at national level for meat (+7.6%), dairy products (+9.7%), bakery products (+14.8%), and fresh vegetables (+11.8%).
Year-over-year, shelter costs in Nova Scotia increased 8.4% in September 2022.
In September, shelter prices increased 6.8% year-over-year across Canada, slightly higher than the 6.6% year-over-year increase recorded in August. There was slower growth as housing markets cooled with slower owned accommodation expenses, related to real estate commissions, and homeowners' replacement costs, which is related to new home prices. The mortgage interest cost index increased at a faster pace with the higher interest rate environment.
Compared to September 2021, shelter prices were up in all provinces with the largest increase in Prince Edward Island (+11.0%) and the smallest increase in Saskatchewan (+5.9%).
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year-over-year growth in CPI) for energy was 18.6% in September, above the national average of 14.0%. Prince Edward Island (+24.4%) posted the largest year-over-year increases while Alberta (+6.9%) had the smallest change in the energy index.
Energy prices were lower in all provinces compared to August 2022 with the exception of Saskatchewan and British Columbia. For Canada, consumers paid 7.4% less in gasoline in September compared to August, posting the third consecutive month-over-month price decline for gasoline.
Nova Scotia's consumer price inflation (year-over-year growth in CPI) excluding energy was 6.1% in September compared to a national rate of 6.3%. British Columbia and Manitoba posted the largest year-over-year gain while Newfoundland and Labrador (+5.2%) had the smallest change in the CPI excluding energy.
Major Components for September 2022
The following table shows the price increases specific to Nova Scotia for the major components of the CPI this month.
The main contributors to the monthly change (September 2022 vs August 2022) in Nova Scotia CPI were:
- Purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles (+0.7%)
- Mortgage interest costs (positive, not reported)
- Other household services (positive, not reported)
- Gasoline (-9.7%)
- Traveller accommodation (-15.2%)
- Purchase and operation of recreational vehicles (-3.2%)
The main contributors to the yearly change (September 2022 vs September 2021) in Nova Scotia CPI were:
- Fuel oil and other fuels (+52.0%)
- Gasoline (+13.5%)
- Purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles (+8.0%)
- Child care and housekeeping services (-11.7%)
- Telephone services (-3.1%)
- Women's clothing (-0.8%)
Long Run Trends
In September 2022, the all-items CPI year-over-year inflation rate for Nova Scotia was 7.3%, above the national inflation rate of 6.9%.
Nova Scotia’s CPI excluding food and energy increased 5.1%. Canada CPI excluding food and energy rose 5.4%. The NS CPI excluding food and energy was previously higher in March 2003 (+5.1%).
Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation
Compared to September 2021, CPI-Common increased 6.0%, CPI-Median increased 4.7% and CPI-Trim was up 5.2% in Canada. All-items CPI excluding eight of the most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada and excluding the effect of changes in indirect taxes (formerly referred to as CPIX), rose 6.0% year-over-year. The change in the core inflation measures was unchanged for CPI-common, CPI-trim and CPI-median from the previous 12-month period.
Appendix Tables and Charts
Basket Update - May 2022
As part of schedule update, Statistics Canada has updated the basket weights based on 2021 expenditures. A used vehicle price was introduced into the CPI Compared to the previous basket reference year of 2020 for Nova Scotia, increase weight for transportation (+2.04 percentage points) and clothing and footwear (+0.52 percentage points) were offset by lower weights for food (-0.5 percentage points), shelter (-0.53 percentage points), health and personal care (-0.65 percentage points) and recreation, education and reading (-0.5 percentage points). Statistics Canada noted that at national level the headline CPI growth rate would be the same using the previous weights. For full details on the weight update, see An Analysis of the 2022 Consumer Price Index Basket Update, Based on 2021 Expenditures.
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions