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Currently displaying information released on: November, 2024
EU AND EURO AREA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, OCTOBER 2024
Year-over-year (October 2024 vs October 2023)
The inflation rate rose to 2.3% in the European Union and to 2.0% in the Euro Area in October 2024.
The fastest inflation was reported in Romania, Belgium and Estonia while the slowest inflation rates were in Slovenia, Lithuania, and Ireland.
Energy prices declined 3.3% in the European Union and 4.6% in the Euro Area in October 2024.
Food price inflation accelerated to 2.4% for the European Union and up 2.0% in the Euro Area in October 2024.
Excluding the impacts of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices year-over-year inflation remained at 2.9% in the European Union and at 2.7% in the Euro Area in October 2024.
Source: Eurostat; Eurostat Data ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR OCTOBER 2024
Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 1.5% year-over-year in October 2024, up from 0.9% year-over-year in September.
Nova Scotia's inflation has been slowing after peaking at 9.3% in June 2022, though there have been periods of rising inflation, particularly due to higher energy prices.
Nationally, consumer prices accelerated to 2.0% year-over-year growth in October 2024, up from 1.6% in September. Inflation was highest in Alberta and slowest in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 1.5% year-over-year inflation were: passenger vehicle insurance premiums, electricity, rent, food purchased from restaurants, and mortgage interest cost.
The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: fuel oil and other fuels, home entertainment equipment, parts and services, gasoline, telephone services, and travel tours.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was up 0.3% from September to October 2024. National prices rose 0.4% with increases reported for all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador with no change. New Brunswick and Manitoba reported the fastest percentage increases on a monthly basis.
Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: furniture, property taxes and other special charges, personal care supplies and equipment, rent, and food purchased form restaurants. Major downward contributors were: traveller accommodation, paper, plastic and aluminum foil supplies, homeowners' home and mortgage insurance, inter-city transportation, and travel tours.
Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices were down 6.8% from October 2023 to October 2024. Year-over-year energy prices were down 3.5% nationally with all provinces reporting lower energy prices. Manitoba reported the fastest year-over-year decline in energy prices while Ontario reported the smallest decline.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices fell 0.1% from September to October 2024. National energy prices were up 0.3% with five provinces reporting higher prices compared to the previous month. Saskatchewan and Manitoba reported the largest monthly declines in energy prices. Prince Edward Island reported the largest monthly increase.
Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil. In October 2024, gasoline prices were down 7.2% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia. All provinces except Alberta reported lower gasoline prices, with the steepest drop in Manitoba.
Gasoline prices were unchanged from September to October in Nova Scotia (+0.7% nationally). Five provinces reported higher monthly gasoline prices with the largest increase Prince Edward Island and Ontario, with the largest decline in Saskatchewan.
Nova Scotia's year-over-year fuel oil prices were down 22.7%. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels index declined 18.7% compared to October 2023. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island reported the steepest drops in fuel oil prices while British Columbia reported the smallest decline.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's fuel oil prices were down 0.7%. National fuel oil prices were up 3.2% from September to October. Saskatchewan reported the steepest monthly fuel oil price increase, while Nova Scotia reported the only decline.
Food price inflation rose to 3.7% in Nova Scotia (October 2024 vs October 2023). National food prices increased 3.0% in October. Food prices were up in all provinces. Manitoba reported the highest food price inflation while Québec reported the slowest food price growth.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices increased 0.7% from September to October. National food prices were up 0.1% from September to October. Seven provinces reported higher prices on a monthly basis. The largest monthly food price decline was in Québec while the largest monthly food price growth rates were reported in Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan.
Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 2.0% from October 2023 to October 2024. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.3% with year-over-year increases in all provinces. Alberta reported the fastest growth while Newfoundland and Labrador reported the slowest growth in inflation excluding food and energy prices.
On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.2% from September to October 2024. Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.5% with increases in eight provinces. Prince Edward Island reported the only monthly decline while Manitoba reported the fastest gain.
Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 2.1% in Nova Scotia in October 2024. National shelter prices were up 4.8% with increases in all provinces. Alberta and British Columbia reported the largest year-over-year increase in shelter prices while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.
Monthly shelter costs were up 0.5% in Nova Scotia from September to October 2024. Nationally, shelter costs were up 0.7% with increases in all provinces, led by Saskatchewan. The slowest increases were reported in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Manitoba.
Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for preserved fruit, pork, and sugar and confectionaries. The largest year-over-year price declines were for fish/seafood, butter and baked goods .
In detailed shelter cost components, fuel oil reported the steepest year-over-year price decline. Prices for most other shelter cost components were up year-over-year, led by water, electricity, and rent.
Household operations/furnishings costs were up 2.1% overall. The largest year-over-year price increases were for furniture and textiles. Prices fell for telephones, paper, plastic, aluminum products, and cleaning products.
Clothing and footwear prices were down 3.9% year-over-year in October with declines in all sub-components except clothing accessories and jewellery and clothing materials and services.
Health and personal care costs were up 2.7% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components except non-prescribed medicine. Personal care services reported the largest price increases.
Overall transportation costs were down 0.9% year-over-year in October. Vehicle insurance had the largest increase while gasoline had the largest decline.
Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were down 0.5% from October 2023 to October 2024 with the fastest decline in home entertainment equipment and services and the fastest increase for reading(excl. textbooks).
Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 4.0% year-over-year with growth in all categories. Alcohol from licensed establishments had the largest increase.
Trends
Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range. Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation has receded with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices. Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years. However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2024 spread beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%. In October 2024, Nova Scotia's inflation excluding food and energy has slowed to 2.0% year-over-year.
The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy. Core measures of inflation may also indicate where all items inflation is headed.
Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021. However, core inflation measures rose in 2022, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining around the beginning of 2023.
The Bank of Canada's year-over-year core inflation measures in October 2024 were:
- CPI-common: 2.2% (up from 2.1% the previous month)
- CPI-median: 2.5% (up from 2.3% the previous month)
- CPI-trim: 2.6% (up from 2.4% the previous month)
The core CPI excluding volatile products and the effects of indirect taxes was up 1.7% (up from 1.6% in the previous month).
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01 Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, OCTOBER 2024
Year-over-year (October 2024 vs October 2023)
All items: Consumer price changes in Nova Scotia accelerated to 1.5%. The national average inflation was 2.0%. In Halifax consumer prices increased 1.8%.
All items excluding food and energy: Nova Scotia consumer prices outside of food and energy increased 2.0%. This was below the national average increase of 2.3%.
Month-over-month (October 2024 vs September 2024)
All items: Consumer prices in Nova Scotia rose 0.3%. Nationally, consumer prices rose 0.4% compared to the previous month. In Halifax consumer prices rose 0.4%.
All items excluding food and energy: Nova Scotia consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2% month over month in October 2024. Nationally, consumer prices outside of food and energy rose 0.5% from the previous month.
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, OCTOBER 2024
The United States Consumer Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) for All Urban Consumers increased 2.6% year-over-year in October 2024, this was up from a year-over-year pace of 2.4% in September.
Compared to October 2023, the US energy price index declined 4.9%. The food index rose 2.1% and the shelter index was up 4.9% year-over-year.
The US CPI excluding food and energy rose 3.3% compared to October 2023.
Note: Canada and Nova Scotia October 2024 CPI figures will be released on November 19, 2024.
Sources: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; US Bureau of Labor Statistics retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES, SEPTEMBER 2024
Statistics Canada makes available scanner data on prices collected for a range of food and personal care items. These prices are collected through point-of-sale (transaction) data obtained directly from Canadian retailers. The data represent commonly purchased items (which do change over time), but are not representative of the Consumer Price Index weights. Over time, products are rotated and quantity or quality may change. Comparisons of prices from one time period to another August reflect quantity and quality changes as well as price changes.
For the purposes of this analysis, the 110 items reported by Statistics Canada will be grouped into:
- Meat, fish, poultry and meat substitutes
- Dairy, eggs and substitute products
- Fruit (including canned and frozen products)
- Vegetables (including canned and frozen products)
- Grains, cereals, beans, legumes and nuts
- Sugar, juices, cooking oils, condiments and prepared foods
- Health and cleaning products
Beef and salmon were the most expensive of meat and seafood products while chicken and pork were less expensive. Nova Scotia's prices for top sirloin, pork shoulder, whole chicken, and wieners had the largest percentage price premiums compared to the national average. Nova Scotia's prices for certain beef products (striploin, stewing, rib cuts, ground) as well as salmon and chicken thighs were notably below national averages in September.
Over the last year (September 2024 vs September 2023), the consumer price index for all items in Nova Scotia excluding food increased by 0.4%. At the same time average weekly earnings across all Nova Scotia industries increased by 6.2%.
Over the last year, prices for meatless burgers, wieners, chicken breasts, as well as all beef except striploin cuts grew faster than average weekly earnings. Several products reported year-over-year price declines in Nova Scotia - particularly bacon, shrimp, and canned tuna and canned salmon.
Dairy and egg prices were generally higher than the national average in Nova Scotia in September 2024 (exception: milk in 2 litre containers).
Compared with September 2023, most reported dairy prices have grown more slowly than average weekly earnings, with the exceptions of eggs and cream. Average prices declined most year-over-year for soy milk and nut milk.
Prices for reported fruits in Nova Scotia were all higher than the national average for similar products. The largest gaps (in percentage terms) were for grapes, apples, strawberries, oranges and bananas.
Many fruit prices have fallen in the last year. Average weekly wage growth has outpaced growth in average prices for all reported fruits except fresh and frozen strawberries. The largest price declines (in percentage terms) were for apples, lemons and canned peaches.
Almost all reported vegetable prices were higher in Nova Scotia than the national average in September 2024 (exceptions: frozen spinach). In percentage terms, the largest gap was for peppers.
Average weekly wage growth from September 2023 to September 2024 has outpaced price increases for most reported vegetables (exceptions: tomatoes canned and fresh, frozen fries, squash, romaine lettuce, cucumbers, potatoes, and avocados). Several vegetable products reported lower prices over the last year, led by frozen spinach.
Nova Scotia prices for grain, cereal, nut, bean and legume products were higher than the national averages for all reported products except white bread and tofu.
Over the last year, average weekly wages have grown faster than prices for all reported grain, cereal, nut, bean and legume products except sunflower seeds and dried lentils. Many grain, nut, bean and cereal prices fell in Nova Scotia over the last year, with the largest decline in the price of dry or fresh pasta.
Among prepared foods, condiments, cooking oils, fruit juices and sugar as reported by Statistics Canada, prices in Nova Scotia exceeded the national averages in September 2024 for all products except white sugar and hummus.
Several prepared products had price growth faster than growth in average weekly earnings, with notable increases for pasta sauce, infant formula, olive oil, and orange juice. There were notable year-over-year declines in prices for canola oil, vegetable oil, and canned soup.
Of all products reported by Statistics Canada, infant formula (900 grams) has the highest transaction price based on the volume chosen. Nova Scotia infant formula prices were slightly lower than the national average in September 2024.
Prices for health/cleaning products were slightly lower in Nova Scotia than the national average, with the exception of toothpaste.
Over the last year, prices for health and cleaning products were mostly down (exception: deodorant). Laundry detergent price was down most substantially.
Trends (September 2024 vs September 2019)
Food prices have been distorted in recent years by global market conditions following the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Compared with September 2019, prices for many meat products have grown faster than average weekly earnings in Nova Scotia. The exceptions were: meatless burgers, seafood, bacon, chicken except whole chicken, pork and beef ribs.
Over the last 5 years, the prices of eggs, margarine, butter and milk in 4 liters have all grown faster than average weekly earnings.
Over the last 5 years, most reported fruit prices have not grown as quickly as average weekly earnings (exceptions: canned pears, fresh strawberries, cantaloupe, grapes, and oranges).
Over the last 5 years, vegetable prices have outpaced wage growth for the following products: canned corn, canned tomatoes, frozen french fries, squash, carrots and tomatoes.
Over the last 5 years, prices for many reported grain, cereal, bean, legume and nut products have been behind growth in average weekly earnings (exceptions: peanuts, tofu, dried lentils, canned baked beans, cereal, brown rice and dried or fresh pasta).
Over the last 5 years, prices for most reported foods in this category grew faster than average weekly earnings (exceptions: hummus, baby food, canola oil, coffee, and frozen pizza).
Over the last 5 years, prices of reported health and cleaning products have grown faster than average weekly earnings in Nova Scotia except for laundry detergent.
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0245-01 Monthly average retail prices for selected products; Table 18-10-0004-01 Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 14-10-0063-01 Employee wages by industry, monthly, unadjusted for seasonality
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